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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ bengals week 5, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
0-3
26
TBD
Paycor Stadium
76°F
6 mph
23
CINBengals
0-4
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
76°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
6
0
13
26
Bengals
3
3
3
14
23

Spread

ARI logo
+3

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
514
370
Total Plays
71
62
Yards / Play
7.2
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.12
Passing Yards
248
262
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.25
Rushing Yards
266
108
Rush Attempts
38
23
Yards / Rush
7.0
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.26
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
26
21
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
46%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
17%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-1.13
-0.71
Penalties
12
7
Penalty Yards
96
60
Penalty EPA
-9.31
-9.50

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+106
Home nfelo
1,390
Away nfelo
1,347
Home Field
+75.5
Base HFA
+55.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+19.9
Net QB Adjustment
-13.7
Home QB Adjustment
-9.7
Away QB Adjustment
+4.0
Market Regression
-39.9
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
Value
Ptile
09/08
-3.7
27
09/15
0.7
57
09/22
-4.8
21
09/29
-1.6
42
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-9.7
Value
Ptile
10/14
-0.2
45
10/21
-6.6
11
10/28
0.6
50
11/11
-9.6
4
11/18
2.4
66
11/25
-3.5
25
09/08
5.1
84
09/15
-1.3
44
09/22
-1.8
40
09/30
-13.2
1

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Bengals Defense
Cardinals logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
16
25
Yards / Game
20
29
Passing Yards / Game
22
9
Rushing Yards / Game
10
32

EPA

EPA / Play
17
30
EPA / Pass
19
29
EPA / Rush
5
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
9
Interceptions / Game
16
21
Fumbles / Game
4
25
Turnover EPA / Game
25
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
25
4th Down Efficiency
2
20
RZ Efficiency
29
4
Bengals Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Bengals logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
30
28
Yards / Game
26
32
Passing Yards / Game
11
32
Rushing Yards / Game
25
23

EPA

EPA / Play
25
28
EPA / Pass
29
30
EPA / Rush
22
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
6
Interceptions / Game
23
30
Fumbles / Game
27
14
Turnover EPA / Game
6
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
30
4th Down Efficiency
12
1
RZ Efficiency
30
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

1-8-1
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
-35
L
L
O
12/02
3
W
W
U
12/09
-14
L
L
U
12/16
-26
L
L
O
12/23
-22
L
L
U
12/30
-3
L
W
O
09/08
0
T
W
O
09/15
-6
L
W
U
09/22
-18
L
L
O
09/29
-17
L
L
U
CIN logo

Bengals

1-9
SU
6-4
ATS
2-6-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
-15
L
L
O
12/02
-14
L
L
U
12/09
-5
L
W
U
12/16
14
W
W
P
12/23
-8
L
W
P
12/30
-3
L
W
U
09/08
-1
L
W
U
09/15
-24
L
L
O
09/22
-4
L
W
U
09/30
-24
L
L
U