ARICardinals
0-3
26
TBD
Paycor Stadium
76°F
6 mph
23
CINBengals
0-4
TBD
Paycor Stadium
76°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
6
0
13
26
Bengals
3
3
3
14
23
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
514
370
Total Plays
71
62
Yards / Play
7.2
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.12
Passing Yards
248
262
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.25
Rushing Yards
266
108
Rush Attempts
38
23
Yards / Rush
7.0
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.26
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
21
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
46%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
17%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-1.13
-0.71
Penalties
12
7
Penalty Yards
96
60
Penalty EPA
-9.31
-9.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+104
Home nfelo
1,388
Away nfelo
1,346
Home Field
+74.7
Base HFA
+55.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+19.7
Net QB Adjustment
-13.7
Home QB Adjustment
-9.7
Away QB Adjustment
+4.0
Market Regression
-39.9
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-9.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
25
Yards / Game
22
29
Passing Yards / Game
22
9
Rushing Yards / Game
10
32
EPA
EPA / Play
17
30
EPA / Pass
19
29
EPA / Rush
5
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
9
Interceptions / Game
16
21
Fumbles / Game
4
25
Turnover EPA / Game
25
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
25
4th Down Efficiency
2
20
RZ Efficiency
30
4
Bengals Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
28
Yards / Game
26
32
Passing Yards / Game
11
32
Rushing Yards / Game
25
23
EPA
EPA / Play
25
28
EPA / Pass
29
30
EPA / Rush
22
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
6
Interceptions / Game
23
30
Fumbles / Game
27
14
Turnover EPA / Game
6
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
30
4th Down Efficiency
12
1
RZ Efficiency
29
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
1-8-1
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bengals
1-9
SU
6-4
ATS
2-6-2
O/U