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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ bengals week 16, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
7-7
16
TBD
Paycor Stadium
38°F
8 mph
23
CINBengals
8-6
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
38°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
0
0
16
16
Bengals
10
10
3
0
23

Spread

CIN logo
-4

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
316
301
Total Plays
68
67
Yards / Play
4.6
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.16
Passing Yards
257
136
Comp/Att
23/44(52%)
18/31(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.29
-0.08
Rushing Yards
59
165
Rush Attempts
19
34
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
29%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-11.50
-8.14
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-40
-18
Sack EPA
-8.24
-2.54
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
87
47
Penalty EPA
-6.05
-3.18

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model70.2%
Spread Pick
CIN logo
Bengals-4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+188
Home nfelo
1,489
Away nfelo
1,445
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+37.7
Home QB Adjustment
+1.1
Away QB Adjustment
-36.6
Market Regression
-1.5
Final Difference
148.9
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

J. Skelton headshot

J. Skelton

Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-36.6
Value
Ptile
12/12
-5.3
16
12/19
-5.2
16
12/25
-1.5
40
01/02
-8.0
7
11/06
1.0
60
11/13
-0.8
46
11/20
-12.0
1
11/27
-8.7
4
12/18
-0.6
47
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
Value
Ptile
10/09
-1.5
41
10/16
4.6
80
10/30
-3.0
32
11/06
2.4
69
11/13
-2.4
34
11/20
0.4
55
11/27
4.2
77
12/04
-3.9
25
12/11
1.8
64
12/18
-3.7
27

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Bengals Defense
Cardinals logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
24
12
Yards / Game
19
6
Passing Yards / Game
9
19
Rushing Yards / Game
24
12

EPA

EPA / Play
28
10
EPA / Pass
26
11
EPA / Rush
9
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
27
Interceptions / Game
27
29
Fumbles / Game
12
9
Turnover EPA / Game
4
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
14
4th Down Efficiency
4
8
RZ Efficiency
14
29
Bengals Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Bengals logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
19
16
Yards / Game
22
18
Passing Yards / Game
19
23
Rushing Yards / Game
21
21

EPA

EPA / Play
19
7
EPA / Pass
18
8
EPA / Rush
21
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
2
Interceptions / Game
19
26
Fumbles / Game
4
12
Turnover EPA / Game
26
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
1
4th Down Efficiency
25
23
RZ Efficiency
25
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-24
L
L
U
10/23
-12
L
L
O
10/30
-3
L
W
O
11/06
6
W
W
U
11/13
4
W
W
U
11/20
-16
L
L
U
11/27
3
W
W
O
12/04
6
W
W
U
12/11
2
W
W
O
12/18
3
W
L
P
CIN logo

Bengals

6-4
SU
4-4-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
10
W
W
O
10/16
10
W
W
O
10/30
22
W
W
O
11/06
7
W
W
U
11/13
-7
L
L
O
11/20
-7
L
P
O
11/27
3
W
L
O
12/04
-28
L
L
U
12/11
-1
L
L
O
12/18
7
W
P
U