ARICardinals
7-7
16
TBD
Paycor Stadium
38°F
8 mph
23
CINBengals
8-6
TBD
Paycor Stadium
38°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
0
0
16
16
Bengals
10
10
3
0
23
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
316
301
Total Plays
68
67
Yards / Play
4.6
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.16
Passing Yards
257
136
Comp/Att
23/44(52%)
18/31(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.29
-0.08
Rushing Yards
59
165
Rush Attempts
19
34
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
29%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-11.50
-8.14
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-40
-18
Sack EPA
-8.24
-2.54
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
87
47
Penalty EPA
-6.05
-3.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model70.1%
Spread Pick
Bengals-4.0
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+186
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,443
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+37.7
Home QB Adjustment
+1.1
Away QB Adjustment
-36.6
Market Regression
-1.6
Final Difference
147.7
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Skelton
Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-36.6
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
12
Yards / Game
19
6
Passing Yards / Game
9
19
Rushing Yards / Game
24
12
EPA
EPA / Play
28
10
EPA / Pass
26
11
EPA / Rush
9
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
27
Interceptions / Game
27
29
Fumbles / Game
12
9
Turnover EPA / Game
4
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
14
4th Down Efficiency
4
8
RZ Efficiency
14
29
Bengals Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
16
Yards / Game
22
18
Passing Yards / Game
19
23
Rushing Yards / Game
21
21
EPA
EPA / Play
19
7
EPA / Pass
18
8
EPA / Rush
21
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
2
Interceptions / Game
19
26
Fumbles / Game
4
12
Turnover EPA / Game
26
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
1
4th Down Efficiency
25
23
RZ Efficiency
25
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
4-4-2
ATS
7-3
O/U