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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ browns week 9, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
1-7
0
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
56°F
7 mph
27
CLEBrowns
4-3
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
56°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
0
0
0
0
Browns
0
13
7
7
27

Spread

CLE logo
-13

Total

UNDER
38

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
58
326
Total Plays
48
71
Yards / Play
1.2
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.76
-0.08
Passing Yards
17
213
Comp/Att
11/20(55%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
0.8
7.1
EPA / Pass
-1.64
+0.05
Rushing Yards
41
113
Rush Attempts
21
40
Yards / Rush
2.0
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
7
17
Passing 1st downs
3
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
8%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
NaN%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.65
--
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-41
-6
Sack EPA
-14.12
-1.59
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
40
65
Penalty EPA
-3.76
-5.09

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.0

Win Probability

Market84.9%
Model84.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+308
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,362
Home Field
+59.5
Base HFA
+43.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.7
Net QB Adjustment
+63.3
Home QB Adjustment
+15.3
Away QB Adjustment
-48.1
Market Regression
+33.2
Final Difference
300.0
Model Spread
-13.0

Quarterbacks

C. Tune headshot

C. Tune

Proj. Value
-4.2
Team Elo Adj
-48.1
No recent game data available
D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.3
Value
Ptile
12/04
-5.3
15
12/11
1.4
62
12/17
-2.2
35
12/24
-4.1
22
01/01
-2.4
33
01/08
-3.9
23
09/10
-1.2
41
09/18
-6.4
12
09/24
5.1
82
10/22
-9.7
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Browns Defense
Cardinals logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
24
21
Yards / Game
19
1
Passing Yards / Game
24
2
Rushing Yards / Game
3
10

EPA

EPA / Play
18
1
EPA / Pass
27
1
EPA / Rush
2
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
11
Interceptions / Game
15
5
Fumbles / Game
10
18
Turnover EPA / Game
20
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
1
4th Down Efficiency
28
1
RZ Efficiency
5
32
Browns Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Browns logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
12
31
Yards / Game
16
25
Passing Yards / Game
5
3
Rushing Yards / Game
13
32

EPA

EPA / Play
28
31
EPA / Pass
28
31
EPA / Rush
23
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
16
Interceptions / Game
32
19
Fumbles / Game
26
31
Turnover EPA / Game
1
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
32
4th Down Efficiency
16
8
RZ Efficiency
15
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-1
L
W
U
01/08
-25
L
L
O
09/10
-4
L
W
U
09/17
-3
L
W
O
09/24
12
W
W
O
10/01
-19
L
L
O
10/08
-14
L
L
O
10/15
-17
L
L
U
10/22
-10
L
L
U
10/29
-7
L
W
O
CLE logo

Browns

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-7
L
L
U
01/01
14
W
W
U
01/08
-14
L
L
O
09/10
21
W
W
U
09/18
-4
L
L
O
09/24
24
W
W
U
10/01
-25
L
L
U
10/15
2
W
W
P
10/22
1
W
L
O
10/29
-4
L
P
O