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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ buccaneers week 4, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
1-2
13
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
84°F
5 mph
10
TBBuccaneers
0-3
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
84°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
0
0
13
13
Buccaneers
7
3
0
0
10

Spread

ARI logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
296
253
Total Plays
59
76
Yards / Play
5.0
3.3
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.23
Passing Yards
240
173
Comp/Att
21/38(55%)
24/43(56%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
4.0
EPA / Pass
-0.12
-0.24
Rushing Yards
56
80
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
2.8
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.41
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
10%
39%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
18
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.36
-11.66
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-20
Sack EPA
-1.44
-2.83
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
90
73
Penalty EPA
-8.41
-6.65

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model66.4%
Spread Pick
TB logo
Buccaneers-2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+16.3%
Cover Probability
60.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+180
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,392
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-18.8
Home QB Adjustment
-9.4
Away QB Adjustment
+9.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
118.3
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.4
Value
Ptile
11/11
3.8
74
11/18
-3.9
25
11/25
-6.5
11
12/02
5.1
81
12/06
3.0
69
12/16
-0.8
44
12/23
-4.5
22
09/08
1.2
59
09/15
-1.8
41
09/22
-10.4
3
M. Glennon headshot

M. Glennon

Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-9.4
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Cardinals logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
16
21
Yards / Game
14
17
Passing Yards / Game
3
12
Rushing Yards / Game
24
15

EPA

EPA / Play
21
18
EPA / Pass
19
18
EPA / Rush
26
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
6
Interceptions / Game
28
4
Fumbles / Game
13
20
Turnover EPA / Game
4
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
18
4th Down Efficiency
12
23
RZ Efficiency
24
9
Buccaneers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Buccaneers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
30
6
Yards / Game
32
6
Passing Yards / Game
27
18
Rushing Yards / Game
22
1

EPA

EPA / Play
27
2
EPA / Pass
26
4
EPA / Rush
24
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
18
Interceptions / Game
9
5
Fumbles / Game
17
16
Turnover EPA / Game
26
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
11
4th Down Efficiency
24
8
RZ Efficiency
22
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/18
-4
L
W
U
11/25
-14
L
L
O
12/02
-1
L
W
U
12/09
-58
L
L
O
12/16
28
W
W
O
12/23
-15
L
L
O
12/30
-14
L
W
O
09/08
-3
L
W
O
09/15
4
W
W
U
09/22
-24
L
L
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/18
6
W
W
O
11/25
-1
L
P
U
12/02
-8
L
W
O
12/09
-2
L
L
U
12/16
-41
L
L
U
12/23
-15
L
L
U
12/30
5
W
W
U
09/08
-1
L
L
U
09/15
-2
L
W
U
09/22
-20
L
L
U