ARICardinals
3-5
27
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
77°F
8 mph
30
TBBuccaneers
2-6
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
77°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
3
10
7
7
27
Buccaneers
7
10
3
10
30
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
417
457
Total Plays
65
78
Yards / Play
6.4
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.09
Passing Yards
342
339
Comp/Att
28/45(62%)
30/48(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.07
Rushing Yards
75
118
Rush Attempts
18
26
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
26
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
10%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
25%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.57
-10.31
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-8
-19
Sack EPA
-2.49
-4.86
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
87
94
Penalty EPA
-9.43
-7.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+120
Home nfelo
1,451
Away nfelo
1,370
Home Field
+67.8
Base HFA
+50.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+17.9
Net QB Adjustment
-29.8
Home QB Adjustment
-9.9
Away QB Adjustment
+19.9
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+19.9
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-9.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
29
Yards / Game
22
15
Passing Yards / Game
22
31
Rushing Yards / Game
10
1
EPA
EPA / Play
17
11
EPA / Pass
19
7
EPA / Rush
5
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
11
Interceptions / Game
16
18
Fumbles / Game
4
2
Turnover EPA / Game
25
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
4
4th Down Efficiency
2
19
RZ Efficiency
30
5
Buccaneers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
28
Yards / Game
3
32
Passing Yards / Game
1
32
Rushing Yards / Game
24
23
EPA
EPA / Play
19
28
EPA / Pass
14
30
EPA / Rush
26
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
6
Interceptions / Game
32
30
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
1
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
30
4th Down Efficiency
11
1
RZ Efficiency
4
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
3-6-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Buccaneers
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U