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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ chiefs week 11, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
3-6
13
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
66°F
20 mph
31
KCChiefs
5-4
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
66°F
20 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
3
0
3
7
13
Chiefs
0
14
7
10
31

Spread

KC logo
-7

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
382
352
Total Plays
68
53
Yards / Play
5.6
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.28
Passing Yards
281
--
Comp/Att
25/46(54%)
15/24(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.40
Rushing Yards
101
159
Rush Attempts
20
29
Yards / Rush
5.0
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
14
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
27%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-2.14
--
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
96
23
Penalty EPA
-12.22
-0.94

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+166
Home nfelo
1,452
Away nfelo
1,407
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+47.1
Home QB Adjustment
+22.3
Away QB Adjustment
-24.7
Market Regression
-36.9
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

D. Anderson headshot

D. Anderson

Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-24.7
Value
Ptile
10/25
-8.2
7
11/01
-8.3
7
12/27
-3.7
26
01/03
-6.0
14
09/12
1.2
56
09/19
-7.3
9
09/26
-4.1
23
10/03
-10.2
4
11/07
-4.8
18
11/14
-4.2
22
M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+22.3
Value
Ptile
01/03
-1.4
40
09/13
-4.2
22
09/19
-5.7
14
09/26
4.6
80
10/10
-3.2
27
10/17
4.5
79
10/24
1.9
60
10/31
-2.9
30
11/07
-0.2
48
11/14
9.5
96

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Cardinals logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
26
14
Yards / Game
31
16
Passing Yards / Game
22
22
Rushing Yards / Game
32
16

EPA

EPA / Play
31
18
EPA / Pass
31
17
EPA / Rush
25
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
20
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
5
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
18
4th Down Efficiency
24
6
RZ Efficiency
29
29
Chiefs Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Chiefs logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
18
30
Yards / Game
16
28
Passing Yards / Game
31
27
Rushing Yards / Game
1
30

EPA

EPA / Play
16
14
EPA / Pass
13
19
EPA / Rush
7
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
2
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
15
2
Turnover EPA / Game
31
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
11
4th Down Efficiency
22
21
RZ Efficiency
7
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/16
-31
L
L
O
09/12
4
W
W
U
09/19
-34
L
L
O
09/26
1
W
L
O
10/03
-31
L
L
O
10/10
10
W
W
O
10/24
-12
L
L
U
10/31
-3
L
L
O
11/07
-3
L
W
O
11/14
-18
L
L
O
KC logo

Chiefs

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
20
W
W
O
09/13
7
W
W
U
09/19
2
W
W
U
09/26
21
W
W
O
10/10
-10
L
L
U
10/17
-4
L
W
O
10/24
22
W
W
O
10/31
3
W
L
U
11/07
-3
L
L
O
11/14
-20
L
L
O