ARICardinals
3-6
13
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
66°F
20 mph
31
KCChiefs
5-4
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
66°F
20 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
3
0
3
7
13
Chiefs
0
14
7
10
31
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
382
352
Total Plays
68
53
Yards / Play
5.6
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.28
Passing Yards
281
--
Comp/Att
25/46(54%)
15/24(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.40
Rushing Yards
101
159
Rush Attempts
20
29
Yards / Rush
5.0
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
14
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
27%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-2.14
--
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
96
23
Penalty EPA
-12.22
-0.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+169
Home nfelo
1,454
Away nfelo
1,407
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+47.1
Home QB Adjustment
+22.3
Away QB Adjustment
-24.7
Market Regression
-36.9
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
D. Anderson
Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-24.7
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+22.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
14
Yards / Game
31
16
Passing Yards / Game
22
22
Rushing Yards / Game
32
16
EPA
EPA / Play
31
18
EPA / Pass
31
17
EPA / Rush
25
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
20
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
5
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
18
4th Down Efficiency
24
6
RZ Efficiency
29
29
Chiefs Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
30
Yards / Game
16
28
Passing Yards / Game
31
27
Rushing Yards / Game
1
30
EPA
EPA / Play
16
14
EPA / Pass
13
19
EPA / Rush
7
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
2
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
15
2
Turnover EPA / Game
31
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
11
4th Down Efficiency
22
21
RZ Efficiency
7
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
8-2
O/U
Chiefs
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U