ARICardinals
-
16
TBD
FedExField
70°F
020
WASCommanders
-
TBD
FedExField
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
3
4
3
0
10
Commanders
7
3
0
10
20
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
210
248
Total Plays
58
65
Yards / Play
3.6
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.33
-0.27
Passing Yards
114
156
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.31
-0.43
Rushing Yards
96
92
Rush Attempts
25
28
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.45
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
21
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
29%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-9.77
-16.98
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-18
-46
Sack EPA
-6.44
-14.16
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
122
70
Penalty EPA
-15.60
-5.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+142
Home nfelo
1,497
Away nfelo
1,428
Home Field
+57.6
Base HFA
+42.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.2
Net QB Adjustment
+15.8
Home QB Adjustment
-15.7
Away QB Adjustment
-31.5
Market Regression
+47.2
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
R. Dobbs
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-31.5
Value
Ptile
S. Howell
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-15.7
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
32
Yards / Game
19
32
Passing Yards / Game
24
7
Rushing Yards / Game
3
27
EPA
EPA / Play
18
32
EPA / Pass
27
32
EPA / Rush
2
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
2
Interceptions / Game
15
29
Fumbles / Game
10
13
Turnover EPA / Game
20
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
26
4th Down Efficiency
28
29
RZ Efficiency
5
19
Commanders Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
31
Yards / Game
24
25
Passing Yards / Game
6
3
Rushing Yards / Game
26
32
EPA
EPA / Play
26
31
EPA / Pass
26
31
EPA / Rush
10
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
16
Interceptions / Game
30
19
Fumbles / Game
22
31
Turnover EPA / Game
2
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
32
4th Down Efficiency
10
8
RZ Efficiency
6
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Commanders
5-4-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U