ARICardinals
6-7
15
TBD
FedExField
50°F
1 mph
20
WASCommanders
5-8
TBD
FedExField
50°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
3
6
3
3
15
Commanders
7
7
3
3
20
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
286
218
Total Plays
80
47
Yards / Play
3.6
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.30
Passing Yards
145
187
Comp/Att
16/41(39%)
18/26(69%)
Yards / Pass
3.5
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.61
-0.02
Rushing Yards
141
31
Rush Attempts
34
20
Yards / Rush
4.1
1.6
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
14
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
1
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
21%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
4
1
3rd Down Attempts
19
9
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.24
-4.60
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-44
-9
Sack EPA
-11.61
-2.33
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
71
82
Penalty EPA
-10.04
-6.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model65.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+137
Home nfelo
1,468
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+75.6
Base HFA
+55.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+19.9
Net QB Adjustment
+31.5
Home QB Adjustment
-16.1
Away QB Adjustment
-47.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
111.7
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-47.6
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-16.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
27
Yards / Game
23
22
Passing Yards / Game
8
15
Rushing Yards / Game
30
32
EPA
EPA / Play
30
13
EPA / Pass
29
8
EPA / Rush
31
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
12
Interceptions / Game
28
9
Fumbles / Game
10
9
Turnover EPA / Game
5
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
7
4th Down Efficiency
20
23
RZ Efficiency
30
11
Commanders Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
18
Yards / Game
17
4
Passing Yards / Game
14
24
Rushing Yards / Game
28
6
EPA
EPA / Play
25
6
EPA / Pass
14
9
EPA / Rush
29
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
3
Interceptions / Game
17
12
Fumbles / Game
25
23
Turnover EPA / Game
6
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
6
4th Down Efficiency
6
13
RZ Efficiency
17
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U