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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ commanders week 15, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
6-7
15
TBD
FedExField
50°F
1 mph
20
WASCommanders
5-8
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
50°F
1 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
3
6
3
3
15
Commanders
7
7
3
3
20

Spread

WAS logo
-4

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
286
218
Total Plays
80
47
Yards / Play
3.6
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.30
Passing Yards
145
187
Comp/Att
16/41(39%)
18/26(69%)
Yards / Pass
3.5
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.61
-0.02
Rushing Yards
141
31
Rush Attempts
34
20
Yards / Rush
4.1
1.6
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
19
14
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
1
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
21%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
4
1
3rd Down Attempts
19
9
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.24
-4.60
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-44
-9
Sack EPA
-11.61
-2.33
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
71
82
Penalty EPA
-10.04
-6.24

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model65.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+138
Home nfelo
1,465
Away nfelo
1,435
Home Field
+76.6
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.2
Net QB Adjustment
+31.5
Home QB Adjustment
-16.1
Away QB Adjustment
-47.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
111.9
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

B. Gabbert headshot

B. Gabbert

Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-47.6
Value
Ptile
01/03
1.5
62
09/12
2.2
66
09/18
-1.3
38
09/25
-3.3
24
10/02
-1.5
37
10/06
-5.3
14
11/19
0.1
53
11/26
2.7
71
12/03
-9.7
3
12/10
-8.8
5
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-16.1
Value
Ptile
10/02
5.5
86
10/15
7.5
92
10/23
3.9
80
10/29
-3.0
31
11/05
-4.3
23
11/12
5.5
86
11/19
7.3
91
11/23
-5.7
16
11/30
-3.5
27
12/10
-3.4
28

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Commanders Defense
Cardinals logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
24
27
Yards / Game
23
22
Passing Yards / Game
8
15
Rushing Yards / Game
30
32

EPA

EPA / Play
30
13
EPA / Pass
29
8
EPA / Rush
31
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
12
Interceptions / Game
28
9
Fumbles / Game
10
9
Turnover EPA / Game
5
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
7
4th Down Efficiency
20
23
RZ Efficiency
30
11
Commanders Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Commanders logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
16
18
Yards / Game
17
4
Passing Yards / Game
14
24
Rushing Yards / Game
28
6

EPA

EPA / Play
25
6
EPA / Pass
14
9
EPA / Rush
29
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
3
Interceptions / Game
17
12
Fumbles / Game
25
23
Turnover EPA / Game
6
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
6
4th Down Efficiency
6
13
RZ Efficiency
17
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/01
3
W
L
U
10/08
-27
L
L
U
10/15
5
W
W
O
10/22
-33
L
L
U
11/05
10
W
W
U
11/09
-6
L
P
U
11/19
-10
L
L
O
11/26
3
W
W
O
12/03
-16
L
L
O
12/10
5
W
W
U
WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
-9
L
L
O
10/15
2
W
L
O
10/23
-10
L
L
O
10/29
-14
L
L
O
11/05
3
W
W
U
11/12
-8
L
L
O
11/19
-3
L
W
O
11/23
10
W
W
U
11/30
-24
L
L
O
12/10
-17
L
L
U