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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ cowboys week 6, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
3-2
38
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
10
DALCowboys
2-3
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
21
7
10
38
Cowboys
0
3
0
7
10

Spread

ARI logo
+1

Total

UNDER
55.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
438
344
Total Plays
60
84
Yards / Play
7.3
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.30
-0.21
Passing Yards
177
247
Comp/Att
9/24(38%)
34/54(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.16
Rushing Yards
261
97
Rush Attempts
35
27
Yards / Rush
7.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.51
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
22
27
Passing 1st downs
7
15
Rushing 1st downs
13
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
54%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
75%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-18.00
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-11
-19
Sack EPA
-2.96
-4.30
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
43
36
Penalty EPA
-6.52
-6.97

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
+2.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model42.7%
Spread Pick
ARI logo
Cardinals+1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.8%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-105
Home nfelo
1,520
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+7.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-144.3
Home QB Adjustment
-113.5
Away QB Adjustment
+30.7
Market Regression
-4.9
Final Difference
-51.0
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+30.7
Value
Ptile
12/01
-7.2
11
12/08
-7.4
10
12/15
4.5
81
12/22
-1.4
44
12/29
1.4
64
09/13
5.7
81
09/20
7.1
88
09/27
0.2
48
10/04
8.1
93
10/11
7.2
89
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-113.5
Value
Ptile
09/30
-13.2
1
10/06
3.6
76
10/13
-3.2
30
10/20
-3.0
31
10/27
-0.4
49
12/01
-1.6
43
12/08
-3.3
29
12/15
-7.2
11
12/22
3.9
78
12/29
-2.0
38

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Cardinals logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
14
28
Yards / Game
6
23
Passing Yards / Game
10
16
Rushing Yards / Game
6
31

EPA

EPA / Play
15
21
EPA / Pass
22
18
EPA / Rush
3
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
7
Interceptions / Game
17
23
Fumbles / Game
23
2
Turnover EPA / Game
8
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
27
4th Down Efficiency
5
11
RZ Efficiency
9
20
Cowboys Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Cowboys logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
17
12
Yards / Game
13
13
Passing Yards / Game
4
11
Rushing Yards / Game
17
21

EPA

EPA / Play
24
9
EPA / Pass
25
10
EPA / Rush
18
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
22
Interceptions / Game
17
20
Fumbles / Game
31
18
Turnover EPA / Game
4
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
10
4th Down Efficiency
22
26
RZ Efficiency
29
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
-27
L
L
U
12/08
-6
L
L
U
12/15
14
W
W
O
12/22
14
W
W
U
12/29
-7
L
P
O
09/13
4
W
W
U
09/20
15
W
W
U
09/27
-3
L
L
U
10/04
-10
L
L
U
10/11
20
W
W
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
-11
L
L
U
12/05
-7
L
L
O
12/15
23
W
W
O
12/22
-8
L
L
U
12/29
31
W
W
O
09/13
-3
L
L
U
09/20
1
W
L
O
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
-11
L
L
O
10/11
3
W
L
O