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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ eagles week 10, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
2-6
21
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
60°F
15 mph
17
PHIEagles
3-5
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
60°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
7
0
14
21
Eagles
0
8
0
3
11

Spread

ARI logo
+13

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
370
289
Total Plays
73
60
Yards / Play
5.1
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.18
Passing Yards
282
123
Comp/Att
21/40(53%)
16/34(47%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
3.6
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.52
Rushing Yards
88
166
Rush Attempts
29
24
Yards / Rush
3.0
6.9
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
23
15
Passing 1st downs
15
4
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
38%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
75%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.89
-3.84
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-33
-5
Sack EPA
-6.51
-1.82
Penalties
7
11
Penalty Yards
66
97
Penalty EPA
-4.91
-12.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-15.0
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.0

Win Probability

Market84.9%
Model84.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+305
Home nfelo
1,589
Away nfelo
1,419
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+49.7
Home QB Adjustment
+12.9
Away QB Adjustment
-36.8
Market Regression
-52.8
Final Difference
300.0
Model Spread
-13.0

Quarterbacks

J. Skelton headshot

J. Skelton

Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-36.8
Value
Ptile
12/12
-5.3
16
12/19
-5.2
16
12/25
-1.5
40
01/02
-8.0
7
11/06
1.0
60
M. Vick headshot

M. Vick

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+12.9
Value
Ptile
12/28
0.8
54
01/09
3.5
72
09/11
3.4
74
09/18
4.2
77
09/25
-1.3
43
10/02
10.9
97
10/09
5.7
85
10/16
1.9
65
10/30
6.1
87
11/07
-1.8
37

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Eagles Defense
Cardinals logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
24
9
Yards / Game
19
8
Passing Yards / Game
9
15
Rushing Yards / Game
24
16

EPA

EPA / Play
28
12
EPA / Pass
26
10
EPA / Rush
9
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
21
Interceptions / Game
27
18
Fumbles / Game
12
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
12
4th Down Efficiency
4
14
RZ Efficiency
14
27
Eagles Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Eagles logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
8
16
Yards / Game
5
18
Passing Yards / Game
10
23
Rushing Yards / Game
5
21

EPA

EPA / Play
8
7
EPA / Pass
15
8
EPA / Rush
3
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
2
Interceptions / Game
31
26
Fumbles / Game
21
12
Turnover EPA / Game
3
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
1
4th Down Efficiency
10
23
RZ Efficiency
16
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/25
1
W
W
O
01/02
-31
L
L
O
09/11
7
W
W
O
09/18
-1
L
W
U
09/25
-3
L
L
U
10/02
-4
L
L
O
10/09
-24
L
L
U
10/23
-12
L
L
O
10/30
-3
L
W
O
11/06
6
W
W
U
PHI logo

Eagles

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
-1
L
W
U
01/09
-5
L
L
U
09/11
18
W
W
P
09/18
-4
L
L
O
09/25
-13
L
L
U
10/02
-1
L
L
O
10/09
-7
L
L
O
10/16
7
W
W
U
10/30
27
W
W
U
11/07
-6
L
L
O