ARICardinals
1-0
7
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
041
ATLFalcons
0-1
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
7
0
0
7
Falcons
7
17
10
7
41
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
267
444
Total Plays
48
78
Yards / Play
5.6
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.43
+0.19
Passing Yards
149
223
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.55
+0.41
Rushing Yards
118
221
Rush Attempts
13
45
Yards / Rush
9.1
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
33
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
13
Penalty 1st downs
1
8
3rd Down %
0%
65%
3rd Down Conversions
--
11
3rd Down Attempts
8
17
Red Zone %
NaN%
63%
Red Zone Conversions
--
5
Red Zone Attempts
--
8
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-15.48
-2.60
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-2
Sack EPA
-2.29
-0.71
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
109
75
Penalty EPA
-10.59
-6.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+189
Home nfelo
1,558
Away nfelo
1,513
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+37.9
Home QB Adjustment
-1.9
Away QB Adjustment
-39.8
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
D. Anderson
Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-39.8
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
6
Yards / Game
31
19
Passing Yards / Game
22
29
Rushing Yards / Game
32
10
EPA
EPA / Play
31
10
EPA / Pass
31
16
EPA / Rush
25
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
28
Interceptions / Game
21
4
Fumbles / Game
22
27
Turnover EPA / Game
5
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
24
4th Down Efficiency
24
21
RZ Efficiency
29
21
Falcons Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
30
Yards / Game
19
28
Passing Yards / Game
26
27
Rushing Yards / Game
13
30
EPA
EPA / Play
7
14
EPA / Pass
7
19
EPA / Rush
16
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
2
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
15
2
Turnover EPA / Game
30
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
11
4th Down Efficiency
4
21
RZ Efficiency
6
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Falcons
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U