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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ falcons week 2, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
1-0
7
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
41
ATLFalcons
0-1
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
7
0
0
7
Falcons
7
17
10
7
41

Spread

ATL logo
-7

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
267
444
Total Plays
48
78
Yards / Play
5.6
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.43
+0.19
Passing Yards
149
223
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.55
+0.41
Rushing Yards
118
221
Rush Attempts
13
45
Yards / Rush
9.1
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
11
33
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
13
Penalty 1st downs
1
8
3rd Down %
0%
65%
3rd Down Conversions
--
11
3rd Down Attempts
8
17
Red Zone %
NaN%
63%
Red Zone Conversions
--
5
Red Zone Attempts
--
8
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-15.48
-2.60
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-2
Sack EPA
-2.29
-0.71
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
109
75
Penalty EPA
-10.59
-6.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+189
Home nfelo
1,558
Away nfelo
1,513
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+37.9
Home QB Adjustment
-1.9
Away QB Adjustment
-39.8
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

D. Anderson headshot

D. Anderson

Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-39.8
Value
Ptile
11/02
0.8
58
11/30
-4.8
17
10/04
0.1
51
10/11
-11.1
2
10/18
-6.3
13
10/25
-8.2
7
11/01
-8.3
7
12/27
-3.7
26
01/03
-6.0
14
09/12
1.2
56
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
Value
Ptile
10/25
-5.2
19
11/02
-5.8
15
11/08
-3.0
31
11/15
-2.2
37
11/22
2.8
68
11/29
-5.6
16
12/20
-0.0
49
12/27
3.2
71
01/03
0.6
54
09/12
-1.4
40

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Falcons Defense
Cardinals logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
26
6
Yards / Game
31
19
Passing Yards / Game
22
29
Rushing Yards / Game
32
10

EPA

EPA / Play
31
10
EPA / Pass
31
16
EPA / Rush
25
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
28
Interceptions / Game
21
4
Fumbles / Game
22
27
Turnover EPA / Game
5
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
24
4th Down Efficiency
24
21
RZ Efficiency
29
21
Falcons Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Falcons logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
6
30
Yards / Game
19
28
Passing Yards / Game
26
27
Rushing Yards / Game
13
30

EPA

EPA / Play
7
14
EPA / Pass
7
19
EPA / Rush
16
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
2
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
15
2
Turnover EPA / Game
30
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
11
4th Down Efficiency
4
21
RZ Efficiency
6
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
8
W
L
U
11/29
-3
L
W
U
12/06
13
W
W
U
12/14
-15
L
L
U
12/20
7
W
L
O
12/27
21
W
W
U
01/03
-26
L
L
U
01/10
6
W
W
O
01/16
-31
L
L
O
09/12
4
W
W
U
ATL logo

Falcons

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
14
W
W
O
11/15
-9
L
L
O
11/22
-3
L
W
O
11/29
3
W
L
U
12/06
-27
L
L
U
12/13
-3
L
W
U
12/20
3
W
W
U
12/27
28
W
W
U
01/03
10
W
W
U
09/12
-6
L
L
U