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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ falcons week 13, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
9-2
18
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
29
ATLFalcons
4-7
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
4
0
8
12
Falcons
17
3
3
6
29

Spread

ATL logo
+1.5

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
331
500
Total Plays
51
76
Yards / Play
6.5
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.01
Passing Yards
--
358
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
30/41(73%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.7
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.14
Rushing Yards
37
142
Rush Attempts
12
34
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
15
16
Rushing 1st downs
1
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
14%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
7
16
Red Zone %
100%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.86
-11.28
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-3
Sack EPA
--
-0.99
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
34
61
Penalty EPA
-5.08
-3.60

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
+0.5

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model49.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+31
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,538
Home Field
+61.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+40.5
Home QB Adjustment
-0.1
Away QB Adjustment
-40.6
Market Regression
-10.6
Final Difference
4.7
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

D. Stanton headshot

D. Stanton

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-40.6
Value
Ptile
12/27
-9.0
5
12/05
2.6
66
12/12
-3.8
25
12/19
5.7
86
09/14
-7.7
9
09/21
3.4
74
10/05
-6.6
12
11/16
2.1
66
11/23
-6.3
14
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
Value
Ptile
09/14
-4.5
23
09/18
7.6
90
09/28
1.1
58
10/05
2.8
70
10/12
-5.2
18
10/19
-1.8
36
10/26
2.1
66
11/09
0.1
50
11/16
1.9
64
11/23
0.9
56

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Falcons Defense
Cardinals logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
24
27
Yards / Game
28
32
Passing Yards / Game
28
8
Rushing Yards / Game
31
21

EPA

EPA / Play
26
28
EPA / Pass
20
29
EPA / Rush
31
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
20
Interceptions / Game
13
13
Fumbles / Game
5
16
Turnover EPA / Game
19
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
32
4th Down Efficiency
1
19
RZ Efficiency
28
21
Falcons Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Falcons logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
12
5
Yards / Game
7
25
Passing Yards / Game
2
26
Rushing Yards / Game
24
17

EPA

EPA / Play
11
3
EPA / Pass
11
6
EPA / Rush
22
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
22
Interceptions / Game
17
9
Fumbles / Game
15
24
Turnover EPA / Game
14
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
8
4th Down Efficiency
14
5
RZ Efficiency
6
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
11
W
W
U
09/21
9
W
W
U
10/05
-21
L
L
O
10/12
10
W
W
O
10/19
11
W
W
U
10/26
4
W
W
U
11/02
11
W
W
P
11/09
17
W
W
O
11/16
8
W
W
U
11/23
-16
L
L
U
ATL logo

Falcons

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
-14
L
L
U
09/18
42
W
W
O
09/28
-13
L
L
O
10/05
-10
L
L
U
10/12
-14
L
L
U
10/19
-22
L
L
U
10/26
-1
L
W
U
11/09
10
W
W
U
11/16
2
W
L
U
11/23
-2
L
L
O