ARICardinals
9-2
18
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
029
ATLFalcons
4-7
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
4
0
8
12
Falcons
17
3
3
6
29
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
331
500
Total Plays
51
76
Yards / Play
6.5
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.01
Passing Yards
--
358
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
30/41(73%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.7
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.14
Rushing Yards
37
142
Rush Attempts
12
34
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
15
16
Rushing 1st downs
1
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
14%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
7
16
Red Zone %
100%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.86
-11.28
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-3
Sack EPA
--
-0.99
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
34
61
Penalty EPA
-5.08
-3.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model49.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+31
Home nfelo
1,466
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+61.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+40.5
Home QB Adjustment
-0.1
Away QB Adjustment
-40.6
Market Regression
-10.9
Final Difference
4.4
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
D. Stanton
Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-40.6
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
27
Yards / Game
28
32
Passing Yards / Game
28
8
Rushing Yards / Game
31
21
EPA
EPA / Play
26
28
EPA / Pass
20
29
EPA / Rush
31
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
20
Interceptions / Game
13
13
Fumbles / Game
5
16
Turnover EPA / Game
19
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
32
4th Down Efficiency
1
19
RZ Efficiency
28
21
Falcons Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
5
Yards / Game
7
25
Passing Yards / Game
2
26
Rushing Yards / Game
24
17
EPA
EPA / Play
11
3
EPA / Pass
11
6
EPA / Rush
22
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
22
Interceptions / Game
17
9
Fumbles / Game
15
24
Turnover EPA / Game
14
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
8
4th Down Efficiency
14
5
RZ Efficiency
6
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Falcons
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U