ARICardinals
4-11
19
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
020
ATLFalcons
5-10
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
3
10
3
3
19
Falcons
0
14
0
6
20
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
339
298
Total Plays
69
61
Yards / Play
4.9
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.08
Passing Yards
213
166
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
19/26(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.01
Rushing Yards
126
132
Rush Attempts
27
34
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
25%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.90
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-9
-3
Sack EPA
-3.13
-1.79
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
50
70
Penalty EPA
-6.39
-7.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+173
Home nfelo
1,406
Away nfelo
1,404
Home Field
+71.2
Base HFA
+41.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
+14.9
Net QB Adjustment
+99.7
Home QB Adjustment
-43.8
Away QB Adjustment
-143.5
Market Regression
+31.2
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
D. Blough
Proj. Value
-5.0
Team Elo Adj
-143.5
D. Ridder
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-43.8
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
21
Yards / Game
22
26
Passing Yards / Game
7
1
Rushing Yards / Game
22
23
EPA
EPA / Play
30
28
EPA / Pass
28
31
EPA / Rush
15
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
22
Interceptions / Game
28
24
Fumbles / Game
7
20
Turnover EPA / Game
9
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
31
4th Down Efficiency
24
5
RZ Efficiency
11
13
Falcons Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
31
Yards / Game
24
21
Passing Yards / Game
31
4
Rushing Yards / Game
2
14
EPA
EPA / Play
14
21
EPA / Pass
19
22
EPA / Rush
8
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
10
Interceptions / Game
5
22
Fumbles / Game
20
10
Turnover EPA / Game
24
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
27
4th Down Efficiency
16
15
RZ Efficiency
14
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Falcons
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
3-7
O/U