ARICardinals
0-1
31
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
83°F
8 mph
17
JAXJaguars
0-1
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
83°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
10
8
7
0
25
Jaguars
3
0
7
7
17
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
383
372
Total Plays
60
67
Yards / Play
6.4
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.14
Passing Yards
--
280
Comp/Att
27/32(84%)
23/43(53%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.57
-0.15
Rushing Yards
118
92
Rush Attempts
28
20
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
15
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
22%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
16
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
-3.45
-4.17
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-2
Sack EPA
--
-6.83
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
58
50
Penalty EPA
-6.22
-12.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+29
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-9.8
Home QB Adjustment
-2.9
Away QB Adjustment
+6.9
Market Regression
-17.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
K. Warner
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
24
Yards / Game
12
22
Passing Yards / Game
8
1
Rushing Yards / Game
27
18
EPA
EPA / Play
17
32
EPA / Pass
13
32
EPA / Rush
19
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
7
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
31
20
Turnover EPA / Game
5
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
31
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
1
24
Jaguars Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
20
Yards / Game
18
24
Passing Yards / Game
13
20
Rushing Yards / Game
9
16
EPA
EPA / Play
16
15
EPA / Pass
20
15
EPA / Rush
1
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
4
8
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
15
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
18
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
0-1-9
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
0-1-9
O/U