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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ jaguars week 2, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
0-1
31
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
83°F
8 mph
17
JAXJaguars
0-1
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
83°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
10
8
7
0
25
Jaguars
3
0
7
7
17

Spread

ARI logo
+3

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
383
372
Total Plays
60
67
Yards / Play
6.4
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.14
Passing Yards
--
280
Comp/Att
27/32(84%)
23/43(53%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.57
-0.15
Rushing Yards
118
92
Rush Attempts
28
20
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
15
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
22%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
16
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
-3.45
-4.17
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-2
Sack EPA
--
-6.83
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
58
50
Penalty EPA
-6.22
-12.74

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+29
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-9.8
Home QB Adjustment
-2.9
Away QB Adjustment
+6.9
Market Regression
-17.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

K. Warner headshot

K. Warner

Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
Value
Ptile
11/27
0.4
54
12/07
2.4
69
12/14
-0.4
49
12/21
-8.0
6
12/28
5.3
85
01/03
2.2
67
01/10
1.4
62
01/18
10.2
98
02/01
10.6
98
09/13
-3.5
28
D. Garrard headshot

D. Garrard

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.9
Value
Ptile
11/02
-3.5
25
11/09
4.2
78
11/16
-7.9
7
11/23
-2.4
32
12/01
0.7
57
12/07
-5.0
16
12/14
5.0
84
12/18
4.7
82
12/28
-1.3
42
09/13
-3.0
30

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Cardinals logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
9
24
Yards / Game
12
22
Passing Yards / Game
8
1
Rushing Yards / Game
27
18

EPA

EPA / Play
17
32
EPA / Pass
13
32
EPA / Rush
19
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
7
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
31
20
Turnover EPA / Game
5
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
31
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
1
24
Jaguars Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Jaguars logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
24
20
Yards / Game
18
24
Passing Yards / Game
13
20
Rushing Yards / Game
9
16

EPA

EPA / Play
16
15
EPA / Pass
20
15
EPA / Rush
1
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
4
8
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
15
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
18
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
0-1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
-28
L
L
P
12/07
24
W
W
P
12/14
-21
L
L
P
12/21
-40
L
L
P
12/28
13
W
W
P
01/03
6
W
W
P
01/10
20
W
W
P
01/18
7
W
W
P
02/01
-4
L
W
P
09/13
-4
L
L
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
0-1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
-2
L
L
P
11/09
24
W
W
P
11/16
-10
L
L
P
11/23
-18
L
L
P
12/01
-13
L
L
P
12/07
-13
L
L
P
12/14
4
W
W
P
12/18
-7
L
L
P
12/28
-20
L
L
P
09/13
-2
L
W
U