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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ lions week 15, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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ARI logo
ARICardinals
8-5
31
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
24
DETLions
2-11
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
10
0
14
31
Lions
0
0
11
7
18

Spread

DET logo
+14

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
340
282
Total Plays
65
60
Yards / Play
5.2
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.20
Passing Yards
223
121
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
16/31(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
3.9
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.41
Rushing Yards
117
161
Rush Attempts
26
27
Yards / Rush
4.5
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
13
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-8.95
-2.17
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-10
-15
Sack EPA
-4.68
-2.18
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
65
45
Penalty EPA
-5.04
-3.88

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-13.5

Win Probability

Market87.0%
Model85.8%
Spread Pick
DET logo
Lions+14.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-282
Home nfelo
1,236
Away nfelo
1,588
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-36.9
Home QB Adjustment
-35.4
Away QB Adjustment
+1.5
Market Regression
-33.9
Final Difference
-311.9
Model Spread
+13.5

Quarterbacks

K. Warner headshot

K. Warner

Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Value
Ptile
09/27
-2.4
35
10/11
6.3
87
10/18
4.8
81
10/25
-2.2
37
11/01
-6.5
13
11/08
9.9
96
11/15
9.4
95
11/22
3.7
74
12/06
8.4
93
12/14
-9.1
4
D. Culpepper headshot

D. Culpepper

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-35.4
Value
Ptile
11/18
-2.2
35
11/25
-0.9
42
11/09
-7.4
8
11/16
-2.2
34
11/23
-8.8
4
11/27
-3.9
22
12/07
-0.1
52
10/11
-1.0
43
10/18
-8.5
6
12/13
-8.2
8

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Lions Defense
Cardinals logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
9
32
Yards / Game
12
32
Passing Yards / Game
8
30
Rushing Yards / Game
27
25

EPA

EPA / Play
17
29
EPA / Pass
13
31
EPA / Rush
19
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
9
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
5
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
25
4th Down Efficiency
13
29
RZ Efficiency
1
17
Lions Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Lions logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
27
20
Yards / Game
26
24
Passing Yards / Game
12
20
Rushing Yards / Game
23
16

EPA

EPA / Play
30
15
EPA / Pass
29
15
EPA / Rush
25
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
28
Interceptions / Game
32
8
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
1
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
11
4th Down Efficiency
32
19
RZ Efficiency
24
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
7
W
W
U
10/18
24
W
W
U
10/25
7
W
W
U
11/01
-13
L
L
O
11/08
20
W
W
O
11/15
11
W
W
O
11/22
8
W
L
U
11/29
-3
L
W
U
12/06
13
W
W
U
12/14
-15
L
L
U
DET logo

Lions

1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-24
L
L
O
10/11
-8
L
W
O
10/18
-26
L
L
U
11/01
-7
L
L
U
11/08
-12
L
L
O
11/15
-17
L
P
U
11/22
1
W
L
O
11/26
-22
L
L
U
12/06
-10
L
W
U
12/13
-45
L
L
O