ARICardinals
8-5
31
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
024
DETLions
2-11
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
10
0
14
31
Lions
0
0
11
7
18
Spread
+14
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
340
282
Total Plays
65
60
Yards / Play
5.2
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.20
Passing Yards
223
121
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
16/31(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
3.9
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.41
Rushing Yards
117
161
Rush Attempts
26
27
Yards / Rush
4.5
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
13
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-8.95
-2.17
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-10
-15
Sack EPA
-4.68
-2.18
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
65
45
Penalty EPA
-5.04
-3.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market87.0%
Model85.7%
Spread Pick
Lions+14.0
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-280
Home nfelo
1,239
Away nfelo
1,589
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-36.9
Home QB Adjustment
-35.4
Away QB Adjustment
+1.5
Market Regression
-33.3
Final Difference
-311.2
Model Spread
+13.0
Quarterbacks
K. Warner
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
D. Culpepper
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-35.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
32
Yards / Game
12
32
Passing Yards / Game
8
30
Rushing Yards / Game
27
25
EPA
EPA / Play
17
29
EPA / Pass
13
31
EPA / Rush
19
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
9
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
5
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
25
4th Down Efficiency
13
29
RZ Efficiency
1
17
Lions Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
20
Yards / Game
26
24
Passing Yards / Game
12
20
Rushing Yards / Game
23
16
EPA
EPA / Play
30
15
EPA / Pass
29
15
EPA / Rush
25
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
28
Interceptions / Game
32
8
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
1
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
11
4th Down Efficiency
32
19
RZ Efficiency
24
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Lions
1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U