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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ panthers week 4, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
1-2
26
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
0
16
CARPanthers
1-2
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
3
7
16
26
Panthers
0
4
0
6
10

Spread

ARI logo
+1

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
338
220
Total Plays
71
52
Yards / Play
4.8
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.41
Passing Yards
206
180
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
22/37(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.36
Rushing Yards
132
40
Rush Attempts
37
13
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.86
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
20
11
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
40%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.20
-14.81
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-1
-17
Sack EPA
-0.60
-3.82
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
46
76
Penalty EPA
-6.74
-3.40

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model48.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-40
Home nfelo
1,407
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+25.1
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-14.0
Net QB Adjustment
-11.1
Home QB Adjustment
-9.2
Away QB Adjustment
+1.9
Market Regression
+1.5
Final Difference
-13.6
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Value
Ptile
12/05
6.6
90
12/13
1.5
63
12/19
-5.3
18
12/25
7.3
92
01/02
7.8
93
01/09
-0.3
51
01/17
-8.2
7
09/11
0.9
58
09/18
2.9
75
09/25
2.1
68
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.1
Team Elo Adj
-9.2
Value
Ptile
11/07
-0.5
49
11/14
-7.8
9
11/21
-8.4
6
11/28
-3.4
28
12/12
1.5
64
12/25
-10.4
3
01/03
-13.7
1
09/11
-2.6
31
09/18
-3.1
28
09/25
-4.5
21

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Panthers Defense
Cardinals logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
17
Yards / Game
22
22
Passing Yards / Game
7
30
Rushing Yards / Game
22
18

EPA

EPA / Play
30
15
EPA / Pass
28
23
EPA / Rush
15
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
24
Interceptions / Game
28
24
Fumbles / Game
7
20
Turnover EPA / Game
9
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
23
4th Down Efficiency
24
9
RZ Efficiency
11
18
Panthers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Panthers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
19
31
Yards / Game
29
21
Passing Yards / Game
30
4
Rushing Yards / Game
10
14

EPA

EPA / Play
20
21
EPA / Pass
24
22
EPA / Rush
9
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
10
Interceptions / Game
15
22
Fumbles / Game
7
10
Turnover EPA / Game
19
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
27
4th Down Efficiency
7
15
RZ Efficiency
12
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
11
W
W
O
12/13
-7
L
L
O
12/19
-18
L
L
U
12/25
-6
L
L
U
01/02
3
W
W
U
01/09
-8
L
L
O
01/17
-23
L
L
U
09/11
-23
L
L
O
09/18
6
W
W
O
09/25
-8
L
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

1-9
SU
1-9
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
-6
L
L
O
11/28
-23
L
L
O
12/12
-8
L
L
O
12/19
-17
L
L
O
12/26
-26
L
L
U
01/02
-8
L
L
U
01/09
-24
L
L
O
09/11
-2
L
L
O
09/18
-3
L
L
U
09/25
8
W
W
U