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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ panthers week 16, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
7-7
30
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
37°F
10 mph
36
CARPanthers
3-11
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
37°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Cardinals
0
17
3
10
0
30
Panthers
7
13
3
7
6
36

Spread

CAR logo
+5.5

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
382
392
Total Plays
64
65
Yards / Play
6.0
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.24
Passing Yards
176
149
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.04
Rushing Yards
206
243
Rush Attempts
29
36
Yards / Rush
7.1
6.8
EPA / Rush
+0.31
+0.41
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
46%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.01
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-26
-9
Sack EPA
-4.07
-3.91
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
82
64
Penalty EPA
-9.64
-7.34

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-112
Home nfelo
1,341
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+53.4
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.1
Net QB Adjustment
-18.1
Home QB Adjustment
-1.3
Away QB Adjustment
+16.8
Market Regression
-25.9
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5

Quarterbacks

K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+16.8
Value
Ptile
10/06
6.2
85
10/13
2.2
64
10/21
2.3
65
10/27
8.6
94
11/03
-4.5
20
11/10
12.0
99
11/24
-4.9
16
12/01
2.0
63
12/08
-0.3
47
12/15
2.2
64
B. Young headshot

B. Young

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
Value
Ptile
01/07
-5.1
19
09/08
-10.0
2
09/15
-6.4
11
10/27
-1.9
35
11/03
-2.9
28
11/10
-0.6
45
11/24
1.1
57
12/01
2.6
67
12/08
-1.0
41
12/15
-5.6
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Panthers Defense
Cardinals logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
32
Yards / Game
11
32
Passing Yards / Game
28
21
Rushing Yards / Game
7
32

EPA

EPA / Play
8
32
EPA / Pass
11
31
EPA / Rush
5
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
21
Interceptions / Game
11
25
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
20
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
32
4th Down Efficiency
27
20
RZ Efficiency
17
29
Panthers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Panthers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
23
16
Yards / Game
29
20
Passing Yards / Game
30
8
Rushing Yards / Game
16
20

EPA

EPA / Play
24
25
EPA / Pass
28
24
EPA / Rush
9
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
28
Interceptions / Game
22
25
Fumbles / Game
13
19
Turnover EPA / Game
13
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
28
4th Down Efficiency
26
17
RZ Efficiency
7
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
1
W
W
U
10/13
-21
L
L
P
10/21
2
W
W
U
10/27
1
W
W
O
11/03
20
W
W
U
11/10
25
W
W
U
11/24
-10
L
L
U
12/01
-1
L
W
U
12/08
-12
L
L
O
12/15
13
W
W
O
CAR logo

Panthers

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
-26
L
L
O
10/13
-18
L
L
O
10/20
-33
L
L
U
10/27
-14
L
L
O
11/03
1
W
W
O
11/10
3
W
W
U
11/24
-3
L
W
O
12/01
-3
L
W
O
12/08
-6
L
W
U
12/15
-16
L
L
O