ARICardinals
6-4
17
TBD
Gillette Stadium
52°F
8 mph
20
NEPatriots
4-6
TBD
Gillette Stadium
52°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
10
0
0
7
17
Patriots
0
7
10
3
20
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
298
179
Total Plays
70
51
Yards / Play
4.3
3.5
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.13
Passing Yards
160
69
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
9/18(50%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
3.8
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.64
Rushing Yards
138
110
Rush Attempts
34
30
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
16
Passing 1st downs
12
4
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
43%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.60
-9.53
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-10
-15
Sack EPA
-2.94
-3.74
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
50
42
Penalty EPA
-6.24
-2.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model52.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+8
Home nfelo
1,524
Away nfelo
1,487
Home Field
+8.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
-37.5
Home QB Adjustment
+8.3
Away QB Adjustment
+45.8
Market Regression
+9.8
Final Difference
-18.3
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+45.8
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
8
Yards / Game
6
14
Passing Yards / Game
10
7
Rushing Yards / Game
6
26
EPA
EPA / Play
15
18
EPA / Pass
22
16
EPA / Rush
3
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
14
Interceptions / Game
17
1
Fumbles / Game
23
31
Turnover EPA / Game
8
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
15
4th Down Efficiency
5
17
RZ Efficiency
9
29
Patriots Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
12
Yards / Game
26
13
Passing Yards / Game
28
11
Rushing Yards / Game
3
21
EPA
EPA / Play
18
9
EPA / Pass
28
10
EPA / Rush
4
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
22
Interceptions / Game
23
20
Fumbles / Game
5
18
Turnover EPA / Game
13
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
10
4th Down Efficiency
23
26
RZ Efficiency
24
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U