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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ rams week 1, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
-
24
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0
27
LARRams
-
LAR logo
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
10
8
0
18
Rams
0
10
3
14
27

Spread

ARI logo
+4

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
390
368
Total Plays
70
63
Yards / Play
5.6
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.00
+0.02
Passing Yards
304
--
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.08
Rushing Yards
86
69
Rush Attempts
26
25
Yards / Rush
3.3
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
25
20
Passing 1st downs
19
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.31
-9.57
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-23
--
Sack EPA
-8.05
--
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
68
59
Penalty EPA
-5.16
-7.27

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+47
Home nfelo
1,431
Away nfelo
1,406
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-23.8
Home QB Adjustment
+2.8
Away QB Adjustment
+26.5
Market Regression
+3.4
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+26.5
Value
Ptile
10/21
0.9
55
10/28
-0.3
48
11/04
4.2
76
11/11
3.8
74
11/18
-3.9
25
11/25
-6.5
11
12/02
5.1
81
12/06
3.0
69
12/16
-0.8
44
12/23
-4.5
22
S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
Value
Ptile
10/21
-1.9
37
10/28
-1.8
38
11/11
4.9
81
11/18
-1.2
41
11/25
-1.2
41
12/02
2.7
67
12/09
-3.0
30
12/16
3.5
72
12/23
-3.1
29
12/30
2.3
64

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Cardinals logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
16
12
Yards / Game
14
15
Passing Yards / Game
3
28
Rushing Yards / Game
24
9

EPA

EPA / Play
21
9
EPA / Pass
19
17
EPA / Rush
26
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
24
Interceptions / Game
28
19
Fumbles / Game
13
1
Turnover EPA / Game
4
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
16
4th Down Efficiency
12
22
RZ Efficiency
24
10
Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Rams logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
21
6
Yards / Game
30
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
18
Rushing Yards / Game
19
1

EPA

EPA / Play
22
2
EPA / Pass
23
4
EPA / Rush
27
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
18
Interceptions / Game
8
5
Fumbles / Game
22
16
Turnover EPA / Game
17
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
11
4th Down Efficiency
27
8
RZ Efficiency
26
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

1-9
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/21
-7
L
P
U
10/29
-21
L
L
U
11/04
-14
L
L
O
11/18
-4
L
W
U
11/25
-14
L
L
O
12/02
-1
L
W
U
12/09
-58
L
L
O
12/16
28
W
W
O
12/23
-15
L
L
O
12/30
-14
L
W
O
LAR logo

Rams

4-5-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/21
-10
L
L
O
10/28
-38
L
L
O
11/11
0
T
W
O
11/18
-14
L
L
O
11/25
14
W
W
O
12/02
3
W
W
U
12/09
3
W
W
U
12/16
-14
L
L
O
12/23
15
W
W
U
12/30
-7
L
W
U