ARICardinals
7-8
9
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
013
LARRams
9-6
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
0
6
3
9
Rams
0
10
0
3
13
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
396
257
Total Plays
74
54
Yards / Play
5.4
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.06
Passing Yards
283
--
Comp/Att
33/48(69%)
17/32(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.02
Rushing Yards
113
68
Rush Attempts
22
22
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
12
Passing 1st downs
16
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
46%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.25
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-38
--
Sack EPA
-6.35
--
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
62
46
Penalty EPA
-7.06
-5.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+138
Home nfelo
1,590
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+42.1
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
-17.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-10.2
Home QB Adjustment
+5.5
Away QB Adjustment
+15.7
Market Regression
+14.1
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
15
Yards / Game
11
25
Passing Yards / Game
28
15
Rushing Yards / Game
7
28
EPA
EPA / Play
8
20
EPA / Pass
11
13
EPA / Rush
5
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
23
Interceptions / Game
11
15
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
20
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
18
4th Down Efficiency
27
6
RZ Efficiency
17
4
Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
16
Yards / Game
14
20
Passing Yards / Game
31
8
Rushing Yards / Game
23
20
EPA
EPA / Play
14
25
EPA / Pass
12
24
EPA / Rush
27
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
28
Interceptions / Game
7
25
Fumbles / Game
11
19
Turnover EPA / Game
28
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
28
4th Down Efficiency
7
17
RZ Efficiency
25
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Rams
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U