ARICardinals
0-0
17
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
82°F
8 mph
23
BALRavens
1-0
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
82°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
3
3
3
8
17
Ravens
7
10
0
6
23
Spread
+13
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
351
440
Total Plays
55
72
Yards / Play
6.4
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.07
Passing Yards
331
258
Comp/Att
25/41(61%)
24/37(65%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.24
Rushing Yards
20
182
Rush Attempts
11
33
Yards / Rush
1.8
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.41
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
26
Passing 1st downs
12
16
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
18%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
25%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-20
-14
Sack EPA
-3.25
-2.15
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
70
62
Penalty EPA
-4.40
-6.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market84.9%
Model84.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+298
Home nfelo
1,594
Away nfelo
1,376
Home Field
+78.2
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.6
Net QB Adjustment
+2.6
Home QB Adjustment
+6.2
Away QB Adjustment
+3.6
Market Regression
-34.9
Final Difference
300.0
Model Spread
-13.0
Quarterbacks
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.6
Value
Ptile
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
3
Yards / Game
22
3
Passing Yards / Game
22
14
Rushing Yards / Game
10
7
EPA
EPA / Play
17
7
EPA / Pass
19
3
EPA / Rush
5
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
26
Interceptions / Game
16
16
Fumbles / Game
4
6
Turnover EPA / Game
25
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
14
4th Down Efficiency
2
3
RZ Efficiency
30
7
Ravens Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
28
Yards / Game
2
32
Passing Yards / Game
23
32
Rushing Yards / Game
1
23
EPA
EPA / Play
1
28
EPA / Pass
1
30
EPA / Rush
1
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
6
Interceptions / Game
10
30
Fumbles / Game
9
14
Turnover EPA / Game
30
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
30
4th Down Efficiency
5
1
RZ Efficiency
5
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
2-7-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U