ARICardinals
1-5
27
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
48°F
9 mph
30
BALRavens
4-2
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
48°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
3
15
0
3
21
Ravens
0
6
14
10
30
Spread
+11.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
207
405
Total Plays
57
80
Yards / Play
3.6
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.06
Passing Yards
98
298
Comp/Att
10/21(48%)
31/51(61%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.37
-0.11
Rushing Yards
109
107
Rush Attempts
30
26
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
30
Passing 1st downs
6
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
10
Penalty 1st downs
4
5
3rd Down %
18%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.71
-11.17
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-55
-38
Sack EPA
-8.28
-9.97
Penalties
12
11
Penalty Yards
92
99
Penalty EPA
-12.27
-12.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-11.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market82.6%
Model86.6%
Spread Pick
Ravens-11.5
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+369
Home nfelo
1,659
Away nfelo
1,387
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-10.0
Home QB Adjustment
-6.7
Away QB Adjustment
+3.3
Market Regression
-1.8
Final Difference
324.5
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
K. Kolb
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-6.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
3
Yards / Game
19
3
Passing Yards / Game
9
4
Rushing Yards / Game
24
3
EPA
EPA / Play
28
3
EPA / Pass
26
2
EPA / Rush
9
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
16
Interceptions / Game
27
12
Fumbles / Game
12
10
Turnover EPA / Game
4
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
3
4th Down Efficiency
4
20
RZ Efficiency
14
1
Ravens Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
16
Yards / Game
15
18
Passing Yards / Game
13
23
Rushing Yards / Game
12
21
EPA
EPA / Play
15
7
EPA / Pass
12
8
EPA / Rush
18
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
2
Interceptions / Game
5
26
Fumbles / Game
23
12
Turnover EPA / Game
23
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
1
4th Down Efficiency
12
23
RZ Efficiency
17
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U