ARICardinals
-
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
013
NOSaints
-
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
3
14
3
0
20
Saints
0
10
0
3
13
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
276
315
Total Plays
61
69
Yards / Play
4.5
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.13
Passing Yards
130
208
Comp/Att
21/29(72%)
27/46(59%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.09
Rushing Yards
146
107
Rush Attempts
27
22
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
46%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
67%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-33
-6
Sack EPA
-7.25
-2.23
Penalties
9
13
Penalty Yards
54
89
Penalty EPA
-8.47
-10.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-97
Home nfelo
1,381
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+58.6
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-29.5
Home QB Adjustment
-23.2
Away QB Adjustment
+6.3
Market Regression
+2.4
Final Difference
-126.9
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
S. Rattler
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-23.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
30
Yards / Game
28
18
Passing Yards / Game
21
7
Rushing Yards / Game
22
18
EPA
EPA / Play
15
27
EPA / Pass
18
29
EPA / Rush
17
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
13
Interceptions / Game
17
24
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
24
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
27
4th Down Efficiency
1
1
RZ Efficiency
19
30
Saints Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
6
Yards / Game
21
23
Passing Yards / Game
19
31
Rushing Yards / Game
10
8
EPA
EPA / Play
29
13
EPA / Pass
28
20
EPA / Rush
12
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
4
Interceptions / Game
9
17
Fumbles / Game
7
16
Turnover EPA / Game
22
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
11
4th Down Efficiency
32
14
RZ Efficiency
21
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U