ARICardinals
1-1
7
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
031
NOSaints
2-0
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
0
0
0
7
Saints
7
7
3
14
31
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
247
423
Total Plays
55
74
Yards / Play
4.5
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.13
Passing Yards
161
319
Comp/Att
18/35(51%)
29/46(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.48
+0.24
Rushing Yards
86
104
Rush Attempts
16
24
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
27
Passing 1st downs
9
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.93
-3.60
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-26
-23
Sack EPA
-5.92
-5.00
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
18
30
Penalty EPA
-2.48
-2.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model75.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+227
Home nfelo
1,560
Away nfelo
1,405
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-23.7
Home QB Adjustment
-0.3
Away QB Adjustment
+23.4
Market Regression
-31.1
Final Difference
193.9
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+23.4
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
4
Yards / Game
14
2
Passing Yards / Game
3
3
Rushing Yards / Game
24
20
EPA
EPA / Play
21
11
EPA / Pass
19
6
EPA / Rush
26
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
25
Interceptions / Game
28
28
Fumbles / Game
13
22
Turnover EPA / Game
4
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
5
4th Down Efficiency
12
13
RZ Efficiency
24
16
Saints Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
6
Yards / Game
3
6
Passing Yards / Game
1
18
Rushing Yards / Game
23
1
EPA
EPA / Play
5
2
EPA / Pass
3
4
EPA / Rush
15
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
18
Interceptions / Game
11
5
Fumbles / Game
2
16
Turnover EPA / Game
28
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
11
4th Down Efficiency
16
8
RZ Efficiency
12
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Saints
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U