ARICardinals
11-6
14
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
045
NOSaints
13-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
7
0
0
14
Saints
21
14
4
0
39
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
57
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
359
418
Total Plays
52
66
Yards / Play
6.9
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.26
Passing Yards
258
--
Comp/Att
24/36(67%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.44
Rushing Yards
101
171
Rush Attempts
15
34
Yards / Rush
6.7
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
27
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
13%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
8
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.94
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-1.46
--
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
--
44
Penalty EPA
--
-3.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+136
Home nfelo
1,606
Away nfelo
1,592
Home Field
+91.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+18.7
Home QB Adjustment
+30.3
Away QB Adjustment
+11.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
K. Warner
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+11.5
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+30.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
18
Yards / Game
12
28
Passing Yards / Game
8
21
Rushing Yards / Game
27
22
EPA
EPA / Play
17
11
EPA / Pass
13
7
EPA / Rush
19
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
30
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
31
4
Turnover EPA / Game
5
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
15
4th Down Efficiency
13
9
RZ Efficiency
1
3
Saints Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
20
Yards / Game
1
24
Passing Yards / Game
16
20
Rushing Yards / Game
10
16
EPA
EPA / Play
2
15
EPA / Pass
2
15
EPA / Rush
7
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
28
Interceptions / Game
5
8
Fumbles / Game
28
26
Turnover EPA / Game
30
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
11
4th Down Efficiency
25
19
RZ Efficiency
4
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U