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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ seahawks week 6, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
2-2
27
TBD
Lumen Field
58°F
4 mph
3
SEASeahawks
2-3
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
58°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
14
3
7
3
27
Seahawks
0
3
0
0
3

Spread

ARI logo
+3

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
344
128
Total Plays
71
46
Yards / Play
4.8
2.8
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.59
Passing Yards
282
114
Comp/Att
34/43(79%)
11/30(37%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
3.8
EPA / Pass
+0.25
-0.64
Rushing Yards
62
14
Rush Attempts
26
11
Yards / Rush
2.4
1.3
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.44
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
21
7
Passing 1st downs
16
6
Rushing 1st downs
4
--
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
8
--
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
60%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.72
-9.24
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-10
-40
Sack EPA
-5.50
-11.73
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
76
56
Penalty EPA
-6.77
-5.85

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model50.1%
Spread Pick
ARI logo
Cardinals+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.0%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-58
Home nfelo
1,443
Away nfelo
1,536
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-9.4
Home QB Adjustment
-0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.7
Market Regression
+12.4
Final Difference
0.7
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

K. Warner headshot

K. Warner

Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+8.7
Value
Ptile
12/21
-8.0
6
12/28
5.3
85
01/03
2.2
67
01/10
1.4
62
01/18
10.2
98
02/01
10.6
98
09/13
-3.5
28
09/20
8.0
92
09/27
-2.4
35
10/11
6.3
87
M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
Value
Ptile
09/07
-8.8
4
09/14
-5.5
12
09/21
0.8
58
10/05
-5.0
15
11/16
-6.3
9
11/23
-4.9
17
11/27
-6.0
10
09/13
5.4
84
09/20
-3.2
30
10/11
6.7
88

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Cardinals logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
9
25
Yards / Game
12
23
Passing Yards / Game
8
5
Rushing Yards / Game
27
14

EPA

EPA / Play
17
21
EPA / Pass
13
28
EPA / Rush
19
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
11
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
31
23
Turnover EPA / Game
5
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
18
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
1
21
Seahawks Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Seahawks logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
25
20
Yards / Game
21
24
Passing Yards / Game
7
20
Rushing Yards / Game
26
16

EPA

EPA / Play
25
15
EPA / Pass
24
15
EPA / Rush
31
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
28
Interceptions / Game
24
8
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
7
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
11
4th Down Efficiency
22
19
RZ Efficiency
30
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
1-3-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/21
-40
L
L
P
12/28
13
W
W
P
01/03
6
W
W
P
01/10
20
W
W
P
01/18
7
W
W
P
02/01
-4
L
W
P
09/13
-4
L
L
U
09/20
14
W
W
O
09/27
-21
L
L
U
10/11
7
W
W
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
2-3-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
-25
L
L
P
12/07
-3
L
W
P
12/14
3
W
W
P
12/21
10
W
W
P
12/28
-13
L
L
P
09/13
28
W
W
U
09/20
-13
L
L
U
09/27
-6
L
L
O
10/04
-17
L
L
O
10/11
41
W
W
U