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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ seahawks week 17, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
3-12
24
TBD
Lumen Field
45°F
5 mph
27
SEASeahawks
9-6
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
45°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
3
10
2
3
18
Seahawks
7
7
7
6
27

Spread

ARI logo
+15

Total

OVER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
200
291
Total Plays
65
61
Yards / Play
3.1
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.29
-0.29
Passing Yards
113
109
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
12/21(57%)
Yards / Pass
3.3
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.62
-0.48
Rushing Yards
87
182
Rush Attempts
25
34
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
12
16
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
24%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-8.82
-6.16
Sacks
6
6
Sack Yards
-36
-43
Sack EPA
-14.57
-9.30
Penalties
3
1
Penalty Yards
20
--
Penalty EPA
-2.97
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-15.0
Model
-15.0

Win Probability

Market88.4%
Model88.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+350
Home nfelo
1,556
Away nfelo
1,316
Home Field
+52.6
Base HFA
+58.5
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+57.4
Home QB Adjustment
+7.0
Away QB Adjustment
-50.4
Market Regression
+34.5
Final Difference
352.8
Model Spread
-15.0

Quarterbacks

J. Rosen headshot

J. Rosen

Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-50.4
Value
Ptile
10/14
-5.4
16
10/18
-11.4
2
10/28
-2.2
32
11/11
-9.4
5
11/18
-5.8
14
11/25
-5.5
15
12/02
-4.6
20
12/09
-4.8
19
12/16
-13.9
1
12/23
-6.0
13
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.0
Value
Ptile
10/14
2.7
68
10/28
5.4
82
11/04
1.2
54
11/11
5.1
81
11/15
1.7
59
11/25
4.5
77
12/02
1.7
59
12/10
-4.9
18
12/16
1.9
61
12/23
5.5
83

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Cardinals logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
32
13
Yards / Game
32
19
Passing Yards / Game
28
24
Rushing Yards / Game
32
18

EPA

EPA / Play
32
19
EPA / Pass
32
11
EPA / Rush
30
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
8
Interceptions / Game
28
19
Fumbles / Game
22
3
Turnover EPA / Game
3
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
5
4th Down Efficiency
32
5
RZ Efficiency
8
8
Seahawks Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Seahawks logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
7
26
Yards / Game
18
21
Passing Yards / Game
19
14
Rushing Yards / Game
1
32

EPA

EPA / Play
6
14
EPA / Pass
8
12
EPA / Rush
5
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
4
Interceptions / Game
2
29
Fumbles / Game
2
15
Turnover EPA / Game
31
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
16
4th Down Efficiency
3
24
RZ Efficiency
6
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
-10
L
P
O
10/18
-35
L
L
O
10/28
3
W
W
U
11/11
-12
L
W
U
11/18
-2
L
L
O
11/25
-35
L
L
O
12/02
3
W
W
U
12/09
-14
L
L
U
12/16
-26
L
L
O
12/23
-22
L
L
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

7-3
SU
7-2-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
24
W
W
U
10/28
14
W
W
U
11/04
-8
L
L
U
11/11
-5
L
W
O
11/15
3
W
P
O
11/25
3
W
W
O
12/02
27
W
W
O
12/10
14
W
W
U
12/16
-3
L
L
O
12/23
7
W
W
O