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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ steelers week 6, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
4-1
13
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
45°F
12 mph
25
PITSteelers
3-2
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
45°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
3
0
3
13
Steelers
0
3
12
10
25

Spread

PIT logo
+6

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
469
310
Total Plays
66
54
Yards / Play
7.1
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.08
Passing Yards
414
169
Comp/Att
29/45(64%)
11/21(52%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.20
Rushing Yards
55
141
Rush Attempts
20
32
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
21
14
Passing 1st downs
18
6
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
42%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.41
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-5
Sack EPA
-1.59
-1.34
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
111
48
Penalty EPA
-18.71
-0.07

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model63.4%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.6%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-50
Home nfelo
1,574
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-113.1
Home QB Adjustment
-94.3
Away QB Adjustment
+18.8
Market Regression
-27.0
Final Difference
-95.2
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+18.8
Value
Ptile
10/12
2.1
66
10/19
1.1
58
10/26
3.0
71
11/02
0.6
54
11/09
-4.0
26
09/13
6.9
90
09/20
2.9
72
09/27
2.7
70
10/04
-0.7
46
10/11
1.0
56
M. Vick headshot

M. Vick

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-94.3
Value
Ptile
09/15
11.1
97
09/19
-3.8
25
09/29
-0.7
46
10/06
0.0
49
10/27
-8.3
6
11/02
1.2
59
11/09
-2.3
33
11/24
-11.9
1
10/01
-2.9
30
10/12
-4.3
19

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Cardinals logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
9
Yards / Game
2
19
Passing Yards / Game
2
30
Rushing Yards / Game
12
5

EPA

EPA / Play
2
9
EPA / Pass
3
13
EPA / Rush
11
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
18
Interceptions / Game
23
8
Fumbles / Game
28
2
Turnover EPA / Game
11
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
15
4th Down Efficiency
6
4
RZ Efficiency
10
6
Steelers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Steelers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
7
13
Yards / Game
3
7
Passing Yards / Game
13
27
Rushing Yards / Game
14
8

EPA

EPA / Play
9
11
EPA / Pass
12
8
EPA / Rush
7
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
27
Interceptions / Game
29
4
Fumbles / Game
7
8
Turnover EPA / Game
16
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
12
4th Down Efficiency
29
12
RZ Efficiency
13
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
3
W
W
U
12/11
6
W
W
U
12/21
-29
L
L
O
12/28
-3
L
W
U
01/03
-11
L
L
O
09/13
12
W
W
O
09/20
25
W
W
O
09/27
40
W
W
O
10/04
-2
L
L
O
10/11
25
W
W
O
PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
8-1-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
21
W
W
O
12/14
7
W
W
U
12/21
8
W
W
U
12/28
10
W
W
U
01/03
-13
L
L
U
09/10
-7
L
W
U
09/20
25
W
W
O
09/27
6
W
W
U
10/01
-3
L
P
U
10/12
4
W
W
U