ARICardinals
2-10
24
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
56°F
12 mph
10
PITSteelers
7-4
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
56°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
3
7
7
7
24
Steelers
3
0
0
7
10
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
282
317
Total Plays
63
58
Yards / Play
4.5
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.24
Passing Yards
132
--
Comp/Att
13/23(57%)
18/27(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.28
Rushing Yards
150
130
Rush Attempts
38
31
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
18
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
59%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
10
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.59
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-13
--
Sack EPA
-3.10
--
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
51
77
Penalty EPA
-6.61
-11.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+191
Home nfelo
1,524
Away nfelo
1,322
Home Field
+61.1
Base HFA
+45.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+16.1
Net QB Adjustment
-72.3
Home QB Adjustment
-14.2
Away QB Adjustment
+58.1
Market Regression
+20.2
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+58.1
K. Pickett
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-14.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
8
Yards / Game
19
21
Passing Yards / Game
24
23
Rushing Yards / Game
3
21
EPA
EPA / Play
18
10
EPA / Pass
27
10
EPA / Rush
2
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
25
Interceptions / Game
15
13
Fumbles / Game
10
5
Turnover EPA / Game
20
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
21
4th Down Efficiency
28
11
RZ Efficiency
5
6
Steelers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
31
Yards / Game
25
25
Passing Yards / Game
26
3
Rushing Yards / Game
11
32
EPA
EPA / Play
25
31
EPA / Pass
24
31
EPA / Rush
20
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
16
Interceptions / Game
5
19
Fumbles / Game
8
31
Turnover EPA / Game
27
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
32
4th Down Efficiency
25
8
RZ Efficiency
25
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U