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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ steelers week 13, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
2-10
24
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
56°F
12 mph
10
PITSteelers
7-4
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
56°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
3
7
7
7
24
Steelers
3
0
0
7
10

Spread

ARI logo
+6.5

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
282
317
Total Plays
63
58
Yards / Play
4.5
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.24
Passing Yards
132
--
Comp/Att
13/23(57%)
18/27(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.28
Rushing Yards
150
130
Rush Attempts
38
31
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
18
18
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
59%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
10
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.59
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-13
--
Sack EPA
-3.10
--
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
51
77
Penalty EPA
-6.61
-11.87

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+193
Home nfelo
1,524
Away nfelo
1,320
Home Field
+61.1
Base HFA
+45.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+16.1
Net QB Adjustment
-72.3
Home QB Adjustment
-14.2
Away QB Adjustment
+58.1
Market Regression
+19.9
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+58.1
Value
Ptile
10/09
3.5
79
10/16
-2.1
36
10/20
1.3
61
10/30
2.9
75
11/06
1.6
64
11/27
4.3
82
12/12
-4.4
21
11/12
-1.1
43
11/19
1.7
61
11/26
0.1
49
K. Pickett headshot

K. Pickett

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-14.2
Value
Ptile
09/18
-4.3
23
09/24
0.7
54
10/01
-7.1
10
10/08
-2.8
30
10/22
0.1
50
10/29
-5.2
18
11/02
-0.2
47
11/12
-2.9
29
11/19
-5.3
18
11/26
1.1
56

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Cardinals logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
24
8
Yards / Game
19
21
Passing Yards / Game
24
23
Rushing Yards / Game
3
21

EPA

EPA / Play
18
10
EPA / Pass
27
10
EPA / Rush
2
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
25
Interceptions / Game
15
13
Fumbles / Game
10
5
Turnover EPA / Game
20
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
21
4th Down Efficiency
28
11
RZ Efficiency
5
6
Steelers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Steelers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
28
31
Yards / Game
25
25
Passing Yards / Game
26
3
Rushing Yards / Game
11
32

EPA

EPA / Play
25
31
EPA / Pass
24
31
EPA / Rush
20
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
16
Interceptions / Game
5
19
Fumbles / Game
8
31
Turnover EPA / Game
27
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
32
4th Down Efficiency
25
8
RZ Efficiency
25
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/24
12
W
W
O
10/01
-19
L
L
O
10/08
-14
L
L
O
10/15
-17
L
L
U
10/22
-10
L
L
U
10/29
-7
L
W
O
11/05
-27
L
L
U
11/12
2
W
W
O
11/19
-5
L
W
U
11/26
-23
L
L
O
PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
4
W
W
O
09/24
5
W
W
U
10/01
-24
L
L
U
10/08
7
W
W
U
10/22
7
W
W
U
10/29
-10
L
L
U
11/02
4
W
W
U
11/12
4
W
W
O
11/19
-3
L
L
U
11/26
6
W
W
U