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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ vikings week 7, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
4-2
14
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0
21
MINVikings
4-2
MIN logo
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
7
0
7
14
Vikings
7
7
1
0
15

Spread

ARI logo
MIN logo
7
P

Total

UNDER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
356
209
Total Plays
69
47
Yards / Play
5.2
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.27
-0.27
Passing Yards
230
43
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
8/17(47%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
2.5
EPA / Pass
-0.39
-0.83
Rushing Yards
126
166
Rush Attempts
26
27
Yards / Rush
4.8
6.1
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
21
12
Passing 1st downs
15
2
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
36%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.71
-6.70
Sacks
7
3
Sack Yards
-32
-15
Sack EPA
-16.96
-4.02
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
82
35
Penalty EPA
-10.07
-5.47

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+172
Home nfelo
1,453
Away nfelo
1,413
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+35.5
Home QB Adjustment
+14.4
Away QB Adjustment
-21.0
Market Regression
+37.4
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

J. Skelton headshot

J. Skelton

Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-21.0
Value
Ptile
12/25
-1.5
40
01/02
-8.0
7
11/06
1.0
60
11/13
-0.8
46
11/20
-12.0
1
11/27
-8.7
4
12/18
-0.6
47
12/24
-6.8
10
01/01
0.2
54
09/09
-5.1
19
C. Ponder headshot

C. Ponder

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+14.4
Value
Ptile
12/11
-8.1
5
12/18
-5.7
15
12/24
-3.4
29
01/01
-8.8
3
09/09
1.4
60
09/16
2.5
65
09/23
6.9
90
09/30
-5.3
17
10/07
2.7
67
10/14
0.5
53

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Vikings Defense
Cardinals logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
31
16
Yards / Game
32
15
Passing Yards / Game
18
30
Rushing Yards / Game
32
10

EPA

EPA / Play
32
15
EPA / Pass
32
24
EPA / Rush
32
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
21
Interceptions / Game
32
29
Fumbles / Game
25
9
Turnover EPA / Game
6
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
24
4th Down Efficiency
22
24
RZ Efficiency
31
29
Vikings Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Vikings logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
17
17
Yards / Game
20
11
Passing Yards / Game
30
15
Rushing Yards / Game
3
28

EPA

EPA / Play
14
2
EPA / Pass
22
2
EPA / Rush
4
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
1
Interceptions / Game
8
2
Fumbles / Game
21
12
Turnover EPA / Game
20
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
3
4th Down Efficiency
16
13
RZ Efficiency
17
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
2
W
W
O
12/18
3
W
L
P
12/24
-7
L
L
U
01/01
3
W
W
O
09/09
4
W
W
U
09/16
2
W
W
U
09/23
21
W
W
U
09/30
3
W
L
O
10/04
-14
L
L
U
10/14
-3
L
L
U
MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
-6
L
W
O
12/18
-22
L
L
O
12/24
7
W
W
O
01/01
-4
L
L
U
09/09
3
W
L
O
09/16
-3
L
L
U
09/23
11
W
W
U
09/30
7
W
W
U
10/07
23
W
W
U
10/14
-12
L
L
O