ARICardinals
4-2
14
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
021
MINVikings
4-2
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
7
0
7
14
Vikings
7
7
1
0
15
Spread
7
P
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
356
209
Total Plays
69
47
Yards / Play
5.2
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.27
-0.27
Passing Yards
230
43
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
8/17(47%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
2.5
EPA / Pass
-0.39
-0.83
Rushing Yards
126
166
Rush Attempts
26
27
Yards / Rush
4.8
6.1
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
12
Passing 1st downs
15
2
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
36%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.71
-6.70
Sacks
7
3
Sack Yards
-32
-15
Sack EPA
-16.96
-4.02
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
82
35
Penalty EPA
-10.07
-5.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+178
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,413
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+35.5
Home QB Adjustment
+14.4
Away QB Adjustment
-21.0
Market Regression
+36.2
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Skelton
Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-21.0
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+14.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
16
Yards / Game
32
15
Passing Yards / Game
18
30
Rushing Yards / Game
32
10
EPA
EPA / Play
32
15
EPA / Pass
32
24
EPA / Rush
32
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
21
Interceptions / Game
32
29
Fumbles / Game
25
9
Turnover EPA / Game
6
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
24
4th Down Efficiency
22
24
RZ Efficiency
31
29
Vikings Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
17
Yards / Game
20
11
Passing Yards / Game
30
15
Rushing Yards / Game
3
28
EPA
EPA / Play
14
2
EPA / Pass
22
2
EPA / Rush
4
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
1
Interceptions / Game
8
2
Fumbles / Game
21
12
Turnover EPA / Game
20
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
3
4th Down Efficiency
16
13
RZ Efficiency
17
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Vikings
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U