ARICardinals
3-4
26
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
034
MINVikings
5-1
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
3
7
13
3
26
Vikings
7
7
14
6
34
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
375
381
Total Plays
71
68
Yards / Play
5.3
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.03
Passing Yards
297
208
Comp/Att
31/45(69%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.09
Rushing Yards
78
173
Rush Attempts
22
29
Yards / Rush
3.5
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
25
Passing 1st downs
17
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
36%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-8.94
-0.25
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-29
-24
Sack EPA
-5.82
-9.02
Penalties
10
10
Penalty Yards
67
86
Penalty EPA
-7.93
-5.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+130
Home nfelo
1,526
Away nfelo
1,463
Home Field
+71.3
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.3
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-4.3
Home QB Adjustment
-3.6
Away QB Adjustment
+0.7
Market Regression
+8.0
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
30
Yards / Game
22
31
Passing Yards / Game
7
26
Rushing Yards / Game
22
21
EPA
EPA / Play
30
26
EPA / Pass
28
27
EPA / Rush
15
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
11
Interceptions / Game
28
12
Fumbles / Game
7
24
Turnover EPA / Game
9
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
15
4th Down Efficiency
24
6
RZ Efficiency
11
22
Vikings Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
31
Yards / Game
5
21
Passing Yards / Game
3
4
Rushing Yards / Game
29
14
EPA
EPA / Play
17
21
EPA / Pass
10
22
EPA / Rush
28
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
10
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
18
10
Turnover EPA / Game
10
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
27
4th Down Efficiency
22
15
RZ Efficiency
8
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U