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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ vikings week 9, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
3-4
24
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0
27
MINVikings
2-5
MIN logo
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Cardinals
0
14
1
3
0
18
Vikings
0
10
0
14
3
27

Spread

ARI logo
+7.5

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
225
507
Total Plays
54
70
Yards / Play
4.2
7.2
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.00
Passing Yards
172
427
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
36/47(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
9.1
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.27
Rushing Yards
53
80
Rush Attempts
21
20
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
13
28
Passing 1st downs
9
22
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
23%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-14.06
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-24
-19
Sack EPA
-4.23
-4.50
Penalties
7
11
Penalty Yards
39
65
Penalty EPA
-3.23
-5.96

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model79.4%
Spread Pick
MIN logo
Vikings-7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+20.0%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+274
Home nfelo
1,563
Away nfelo
1,392
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+8.3
Home QB Adjustment
-19.7
Away QB Adjustment
-28.1
Market Regression
-4.6
Final Difference
234.2
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

D. Anderson headshot

D. Anderson

Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-28.1
Value
Ptile
10/11
-11.1
2
10/18
-6.3
13
10/25
-8.2
7
11/01
-8.3
7
12/27
-3.7
26
01/03
-6.0
14
09/12
1.2
56
09/19
-7.3
9
09/26
-4.1
23
10/03
-10.2
4
B. Favre headshot

B. Favre

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-19.7
Value
Ptile
01/03
12.0
99
01/17
5.1
82
01/24
1.7
61
09/09
-2.2
33
09/19
-7.4
9
09/26
-4.2
22
10/11
-2.7
31
10/17
-2.2
34
10/24
-4.7
19
10/31
0.7
53

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Vikings Defense
Cardinals logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
26
18
Yards / Game
31
8
Passing Yards / Game
22
6
Rushing Yards / Game
32
9

EPA

EPA / Play
31
9
EPA / Pass
31
10
EPA / Rush
25
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
15
Interceptions / Game
21
17
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
5
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
24
4th Down Efficiency
24
19
RZ Efficiency
29
23
Vikings Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Vikings logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
29
30
Yards / Game
23
28
Passing Yards / Game
12
27
Rushing Yards / Game
10
30

EPA

EPA / Play
27
14
EPA / Pass
30
19
EPA / Rush
14
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
2
Interceptions / Game
32
11
Fumbles / Game
22
2
Turnover EPA / Game
2
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
11
4th Down Efficiency
15
21
RZ Efficiency
30
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
-26
L
L
U
01/10
6
W
W
O
01/16
-31
L
L
O
09/12
4
W
W
U
09/19
-34
L
L
O
09/26
1
W
L
O
10/03
-31
L
L
O
10/10
10
W
W
O
10/24
-12
L
L
U
10/31
-3
L
L
O
MIN logo

Vikings

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
37
W
W
O
01/17
31
W
W
U
01/24
-3
L
W
O
09/09
-5
L
L
U
09/19
-4
L
L
U
09/26
14
W
W
U
10/11
-9
L
L
O
10/17
3
W
W
O
10/24
-4
L
L
O
10/31
-10
L
L
O