LACChargers
5-3
16
TBD
Levi's Stadium
57°F
6 mph
22
SF49ers
4-4
TBD
Levi's Stadium
57°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
9
0
0
16
49ers
3
7
3
9
22
Spread
+8
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
238
387
Total Plays
56
70
Yards / Play
4.3
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.03
Passing Yards
187
230
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.16
Rushing Yards
51
157
Rush Attempts
16
41
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
22
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
38%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.00
-4.42
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-9
-10
Sack EPA
-2.73
-1.77
Penalties
1
5
Penalty Yards
--
52
Penalty EPA
--
-5.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+145
Home nfelo
1,570
Away nfelo
1,513
Home Field
+64.5
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.3
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+22.3
Home QB Adjustment
+19.7
Away QB Adjustment
-2.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+19.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
1
Yards / Game
8
2
Passing Yards / Game
5
19
Rushing Yards / Game
30
2
EPA
EPA / Play
18
1
EPA / Pass
12
2
EPA / Rush
17
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
27
Interceptions / Game
6
2
Fumbles / Game
27
19
Turnover EPA / Game
29
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
13
4th Down Efficiency
15
16
RZ Efficiency
18
20
49ers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
23
Yards / Game
6
20
Passing Yards / Game
27
7
Rushing Yards / Game
7
27
EPA
EPA / Play
6
14
EPA / Pass
2
9
EPA / Rush
23
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
16
Interceptions / Game
3
5
Fumbles / Game
26
27
Turnover EPA / Game
31
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
11
4th Down Efficiency
29
9
RZ Efficiency
19
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
49ers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U