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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ 49ers week 10, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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LAC logo
LACChargers
5-3
16
TBD
Levi's Stadium
57°F
6 mph
22
SF49ers
4-4
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
57°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
9
0
0
16
49ers
3
7
3
9
22

Spread

LAC logo
+8

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
238
387
Total Plays
56
70
Yards / Play
4.3
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.03
Passing Yards
187
230
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.16
Rushing Yards
51
157
Rush Attempts
16
41
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
12
22
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
38%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.00
-4.42
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-9
-10
Sack EPA
-2.73
-1.77
Penalties
1
5
Penalty Yards
--
52
Penalty EPA
--
-5.32

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+145
Home nfelo
1,569
Away nfelo
1,511
Home Field
+64.4
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.3
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+22.3
Home QB Adjustment
+19.7
Away QB Adjustment
-2.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
Value
Ptile
01/02
4.5
82
01/09
-0.5
49
09/11
7.0
91
09/15
3.8
80
09/25
-0.9
46
10/02
5.6
87
10/09
1.9
68
10/17
-1.2
45
10/23
1.7
65
11/06
-0.3
50
J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+19.7
Value
Ptile
01/09
-0.7
47
01/16
-2.0
37
01/22
-9.1
6
01/30
1.4
63
09/25
-5.0
18
10/03
2.1
69
10/09
0.8
58
10/16
1.7
65
10/23
-3.2
27
10/30
3.9
80

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Chargers logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
12
1
Yards / Game
8
2
Passing Yards / Game
5
19
Rushing Yards / Game
30
2

EPA

EPA / Play
18
1
EPA / Pass
12
2
EPA / Rush
17
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
27
Interceptions / Game
6
2
Fumbles / Game
27
19
Turnover EPA / Game
29
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
13
4th Down Efficiency
15
16
RZ Efficiency
18
20
49ers Offense vs Chargers Defense
49ers logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
6
23
Yards / Game
6
20
Passing Yards / Game
27
7
Rushing Yards / Game
7
27

EPA

EPA / Play
6
14
EPA / Pass
2
9
EPA / Rush
23
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
16
Interceptions / Game
3
5
Fumbles / Game
26
27
Turnover EPA / Game
31
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
11
4th Down Efficiency
29
9
RZ Efficiency
19
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
21
W
W
O
01/09
-3
L
L
O
09/11
5
W
W
U
09/15
-3
L
W
U
09/25
-28
L
L
O
10/02
10
W
W
O
10/09
2
W
W
O
10/17
3
W
L
U
10/23
-14
L
L
O
11/06
3
W
W
U
SF logo

49ers

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/22
3
W
W
U
01/30
-3
L
W
U
09/11
-9
L
L
U
09/18
20
W
W
U
09/25
-1
L
L
U
10/03
15
W
W
U
10/09
22
W
W
O
10/16
-14
L
L
U
10/23
-21
L
L
O
10/30
17
W
W
O