LACChargers
8-6
38
TBD
Levi's Stadium
61°F
5 mph
35
SF49ers
7-7
TBD
Levi's Stadium
61°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chargers
0
7
8
14
3
32
49ers
7
15
7
0
0
29
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
446
447
Total Plays
80
66
Yards / Play
5.6
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.00
Passing Yards
348
92
Comp/Att
33/54(61%)
15/24(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
3.8
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.36
Rushing Yards
98
355
Rush Attempts
24
40
Yards / Rush
4.1
8.9
EPA / Rush
-0.00
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
21
Passing 1st downs
19
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
50%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
-17.09
-14.09
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-8
-22
Sack EPA
-2.19
-9.07
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
38
92
Penalty EPA
-8.99
-10.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model58.0%
Spread Pick
49ers-1.5
Expected Value
+15.3%
Cover Probability
60.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+111
Home nfelo
1,574
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-30.0
Home QB Adjustment
-37.4
Away QB Adjustment
-7.4
Market Regression
+13.4
Final Difference
56.0
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.4
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-37.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
10
Yards / Game
19
5
Passing Yards / Game
8
14
Rushing Yards / Game
30
7
EPA
EPA / Play
12
18
EPA / Pass
7
15
EPA / Rush
27
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
3
Interceptions / Game
26
1
Fumbles / Game
2
25
Turnover EPA / Game
23
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
26
4th Down Efficiency
19
19
RZ Efficiency
15
28
49ers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
12
Yards / Game
21
10
Passing Yards / Game
27
1
Rushing Yards / Game
4
25
EPA
EPA / Play
20
23
EPA / Pass
18
21
EPA / Rush
20
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
16
Interceptions / Game
4
28
Fumbles / Game
19
6
Turnover EPA / Game
17
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
24
4th Down Efficiency
8
3
RZ Efficiency
29
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
5-5
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U