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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ 49ers week 16, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
8-6
38
TBD
Levi's Stadium
61°F
5 mph
35
SF49ers
7-7
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
61°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chargers
0
7
8
14
3
32
49ers
7
15
7
0
0
29

Spread

LAC logo
+1.5

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
446
447
Total Plays
80
66
Yards / Play
5.6
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.00
Passing Yards
348
92
Comp/Att
33/54(61%)
15/24(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
3.8
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.36
Rushing Yards
98
355
Rush Attempts
24
40
Yards / Rush
4.1
8.9
EPA / Rush
-0.00
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
28
21
Passing 1st downs
19
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
50%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
-17.09
-14.09
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-8
-22
Sack EPA
-2.19
-9.07
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
38
92
Penalty EPA
-8.99
-10.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model57.9%
Spread Pick
SF logo
49ers-1.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+15.3%
Cover Probability
60.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+108
Home nfelo
1,571
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-30.0
Home QB Adjustment
-37.4
Away QB Adjustment
-7.4
Market Regression
+12.4
Final Difference
55.0
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-7.4
Value
Ptile
10/05
2.5
68
10/12
5.8
84
10/19
-2.1
35
10/23
3.5
74
11/02
-11.3
2
11/16
-2.3
33
11/23
0.9
56
11/30
8.5
93
12/07
-5.4
18
12/14
-2.4
33
C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-37.4
Value
Ptile
10/05
-3.1
29
10/13
10.4
97
10/19
-4.3
24
11/02
-6.5
12
11/09
-4.5
23
11/16
-1.0
43
11/23
-1.4
40
11/27
-9.9
4
12/07
-9.3
5
12/14
-5.2
19

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Chargers logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
17
10
Yards / Game
19
5
Passing Yards / Game
8
14
Rushing Yards / Game
30
7

EPA

EPA / Play
12
18
EPA / Pass
7
15
EPA / Rush
27
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
3
Interceptions / Game
26
1
Fumbles / Game
2
25
Turnover EPA / Game
23
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
26
4th Down Efficiency
19
19
RZ Efficiency
15
28
49ers Offense vs Chargers Defense
49ers logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
25
12
Yards / Game
21
10
Passing Yards / Game
27
1
Rushing Yards / Game
4
25

EPA

EPA / Play
20
23
EPA / Pass
18
21
EPA / Rush
20
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
16
Interceptions / Game
4
28
Fumbles / Game
19
6
Turnover EPA / Game
17
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
24
4th Down Efficiency
8
3
RZ Efficiency
29
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

5-5
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
31
W
W
U
10/12
3
W
L
O
10/19
-3
L
L
U
10/23
-14
L
L
O
11/02
-37
L
L
U
11/16
7
W
L
U
11/23
3
W
L
O
11/30
1
W
W
O
12/07
-9
L
L
U
12/14
-12
L
L
U
SF logo

49ers

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
5
W
W
U
10/13
14
W
W
O
10/19
-25
L
L
O
11/02
-3
L
L
U
11/09
3
W
W
O
11/16
6
W
W
U
11/23
4
W
L
U
11/27
-16
L
L
U
12/07
-11
L
L
U
12/14
-10
L
P
U