LACChargers
2-5
17
TBD
Soldier Field
52°F
9 mph
16
CHIBears
3-3
TBD
Soldier Field
52°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
7
3
7
17
Bears
0
9
7
0
16
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
231
388
Total Plays
42
77
Yards / Play
5.5
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.26
-0.17
Passing Yards
195
226
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.11
Rushing Yards
36
162
Rush Attempts
12
38
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
26
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
20%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
50%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.45
-11.61
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-6
-27
Sack EPA
-1.02
-10.63
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
53
42
Penalty EPA
-9.58
-3.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+125
Home nfelo
1,557
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+70.5
Base HFA
+52.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+18.6
Net QB Adjustment
-9.5
Home QB Adjustment
-2.4
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
-35.1
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
4
Yards / Game
10
8
Passing Yards / Game
3
11
Rushing Yards / Game
28
9
EPA
EPA / Play
11
6
EPA / Pass
11
11
EPA / Rush
25
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
12
Interceptions / Game
29
25
Fumbles / Game
18
14
Turnover EPA / Game
4
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
6
4th Down Efficiency
9
23
RZ Efficiency
22
11
Bears Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
13
Yards / Game
29
6
Passing Yards / Game
18
3
Rushing Yards / Game
27
18
EPA
EPA / Play
28
22
EPA / Pass
24
22
EPA / Rush
29
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
21
Interceptions / Game
16
21
Fumbles / Game
4
30
Turnover EPA / Game
22
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
29
4th Down Efficiency
29
28
RZ Efficiency
24
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
4-6
SU
3-5-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bears
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U