LACChargers
4-5
20
TBD
Soldier Field
42°F
13 mph
31
CHIBears
6-3
TBD
Soldier Field
42°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
3
7
7
3
20
Bears
3
14
14
0
31
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
332
378
Total Plays
48
64
Yards / Play
6.9
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.13
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
21/31(68%)
18/32(56%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.41
+0.25
Rushing Yards
52
92
Rush Attempts
17
32
Yards / Rush
3.1
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.63
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
45%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.52
-7.83
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
20
61
Penalty EPA
-3.00
+1.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+99
Home nfelo
1,593
Away nfelo
1,574
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.8
Home QB Adjustment
+1.3
Away QB Adjustment
-15.6
Market Regression
+10.7
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-15.6
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
14
Yards / Game
6
17
Passing Yards / Game
16
22
Rushing Yards / Game
16
5
EPA
EPA / Play
4
4
EPA / Pass
4
9
EPA / Rush
12
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
5
Interceptions / Game
25
5
Fumbles / Game
12
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
9
4th Down Efficiency
20
14
RZ Efficiency
10
7
Bears Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
23
Yards / Game
25
16
Passing Yards / Game
30
10
Rushing Yards / Game
9
20
EPA
EPA / Play
24
29
EPA / Pass
30
28
EPA / Rush
19
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
25
Interceptions / Game
25
15
Fumbles / Game
22
31
Turnover EPA / Game
8
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
32
4th Down Efficiency
30
2
RZ Efficiency
12
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
5-5
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U