LACChargers
1-0
19
TBD
Paycor Stadium
69°F
6 mph
24
CINBengals
1-0
TBD
Paycor Stadium
69°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
3
3
7
6
19
Bengals
7
7
3
7
24
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
354
389
Total Plays
57
62
Yards / Play
6.2
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.02
Passing Yards
223
--
Comp/Att
21/28(75%)
16/26(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.38
Rushing Yards
131
175
Rush Attempts
25
36
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
36%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
-7.02
-5.27
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-18
--
Sack EPA
-9.83
--
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
64
75
Penalty EPA
-9.18
-8.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model66.9%
Spread Pick
Bengals-3.5
Expected Value
+2.7%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+159
Home nfelo
1,548
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-0.9
Home QB Adjustment
+3.8
Away QB Adjustment
+4.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
122.1
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
2
Yards / Game
7
13
Passing Yards / Game
1
24
Rushing Yards / Game
30
7
EPA
EPA / Play
18
7
EPA / Pass
11
5
EPA / Rush
31
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
23
Interceptions / Game
16
3
Fumbles / Game
21
27
Turnover EPA / Game
15
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
14
4th Down Efficiency
29
16
RZ Efficiency
7
4
Bengals Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
21
Yards / Game
16
21
Passing Yards / Game
30
17
Rushing Yards / Game
13
27
EPA
EPA / Play
6
30
EPA / Pass
2
19
EPA / Rush
23
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
13
Interceptions / Game
6
20
Fumbles / Game
25
15
Turnover EPA / Game
25
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
13
4th Down Efficiency
4
32
RZ Efficiency
5
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U