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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ bengals week 2, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
1-0
19
TBD
Paycor Stadium
69°F
6 mph
24
CINBengals
1-0
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
69°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
3
3
7
6
19
Bengals
7
7
3
7
24

Spread

CIN logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
354
389
Total Plays
57
62
Yards / Play
6.2
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.02
Passing Yards
223
--
Comp/Att
21/28(75%)
16/26(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.38
Rushing Yards
131
175
Rush Attempts
25
36
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
36%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
-7.02
-5.27
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-18
--
Sack EPA
-9.83
--
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
64
75
Penalty EPA
-9.18
-8.40

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model66.9%
Spread Pick
CIN logo
Bengals-3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.7%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+159
Home nfelo
1,548
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-0.9
Home QB Adjustment
+3.8
Away QB Adjustment
+4.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
122.1
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
Value
Ptile
10/23
3.5
74
11/02
-11.3
2
11/16
-2.3
33
11/23
0.9
56
11/30
8.5
93
12/07
-5.4
18
12/14
-2.4
33
12/20
3.0
71
12/28
-9.1
6
09/13
6.0
87
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.8
Value
Ptile
11/06
-15.6
0
11/16
4.9
82
11/23
0.7
55
11/30
-4.5
23
12/07
7.3
89
12/14
-6.2
14
12/22
1.0
57
12/28
-2.2
34
01/04
-4.0
25
09/13
5.3
84

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Chargers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
25
2
Yards / Game
7
13
Passing Yards / Game
1
24
Rushing Yards / Game
30
7

EPA

EPA / Play
18
7
EPA / Pass
11
5
EPA / Rush
31
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
23
Interceptions / Game
16
3
Fumbles / Game
21
27
Turnover EPA / Game
15
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
14
4th Down Efficiency
29
16
RZ Efficiency
7
4
Bengals Offense vs Chargers Defense
Bengals logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
21
Yards / Game
16
21
Passing Yards / Game
30
17
Rushing Yards / Game
13
27

EPA

EPA / Play
6
30
EPA / Pass
2
19
EPA / Rush
23
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
13
Interceptions / Game
6
20
Fumbles / Game
25
15
Turnover EPA / Game
25
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
13
4th Down Efficiency
4
32
RZ Efficiency
5
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
-14
L
L
O
11/02
-37
L
L
U
11/16
7
W
L
U
11/23
3
W
L
O
11/30
1
W
W
O
12/07
-9
L
L
U
12/14
-12
L
L
U
12/20
3
W
W
O
12/28
-12
L
L
U
09/13
5
W
W
O
CIN logo

Bengals

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
-21
L
L
U
11/16
17
W
W
U
11/23
9
W
W
U
11/30
1
W
L
U
12/07
-21
L
L
O
12/14
30
W
W
U
12/22
9
W
W
O
12/28
-10
L
L
U
01/04
-16
L
L
U
09/13
20
W
W
O