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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ bengals week 13, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
6-5
41
TBD
Paycor Stadium
48°F
11 mph
22
CINBengals
7-4
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
48°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
16
8
0
11
35
Bengals
0
13
9
0
22

Spread

LAC logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
365
356
Total Plays
62
72
Yards / Play
5.9
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.35
Passing Yards
286
260
Comp/Att
26/36(72%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.15
Rushing Yards
79
96
Rush Attempts
22
26
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.56
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
31%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
3
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-10.10
-23.52
Sacks
4
6
Sack Yards
-33
-40
Sack EPA
-6.00
-13.83
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
51
--
Penalty EPA
-6.03
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+70
Home nfelo
1,542
Away nfelo
1,511
Home Field
+59.0
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.6
Net QB Adjustment
-20.7
Home QB Adjustment
-1.2
Away QB Adjustment
+19.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+19.5
Value
Ptile
09/19
0.8
59
09/26
7.2
92
10/04
1.4
63
10/10
11.6
98
10/17
-3.9
24
10/31
-5.2
18
11/07
11.9
98
11/14
-2.6
34
11/21
13.7
99
11/28
0.9
60
J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
Value
Ptile
09/19
-8.0
8
09/26
2.8
74
09/30
5.3
85
10/10
-1.1
45
10/17
0.8
59
10/24
6.1
88
10/31
-1.8
40
11/07
-7.3
10
11/21
-4.1
24
11/28
1.7
66

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Chargers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
5
13
Yards / Game
4
19
Passing Yards / Game
5
28
Rushing Yards / Game
21
7

EPA

EPA / Play
7
10
EPA / Pass
7
14
EPA / Rush
16
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
1
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
7
8
Turnover EPA / Game
15
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
20
4th Down Efficiency
4
2
RZ Efficiency
3
17
Bengals Offense vs Chargers Defense
Bengals logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
29
Yards / Game
14
23
Passing Yards / Game
3
23
Rushing Yards / Game
24
30

EPA

EPA / Play
12
25
EPA / Pass
9
17
EPA / Rush
22
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
27
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
2
7
Turnover EPA / Game
17
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
32
4th Down Efficiency
5
1
RZ Efficiency
23
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
-3
L
L
U
09/26
6
W
W
U
10/04
14
W
W
U
10/10
5
W
W
O
10/17
-28
L
L
U
10/31
-3
L
L
O
11/07
3
W
W
O
11/14
-7
L
L
U
11/21
4
W
L
O
11/28
-15
L
L
U
CIN logo

Bengals

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
-3
L
L
U
09/26
14
W
W
U
09/30
3
W
L
U
10/10
-3
L
L
U
10/17
23
W
W
U
10/24
24
W
W
O
10/31
-3
L
L
O
11/07
-25
L
L
O
11/21
19
W
W
U
11/28
31
W
W
O