LACChargers
6-5
41
TBD
Paycor Stadium
48°F
11 mph
22
CINBengals
7-4
TBD
Paycor Stadium
48°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
16
8
0
11
35
Bengals
0
13
9
0
22
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
356
Total Plays
62
72
Yards / Play
5.9
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.35
Passing Yards
286
260
Comp/Att
26/36(72%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.15
Rushing Yards
79
96
Rush Attempts
22
26
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.56
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
31%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-10.10
-23.52
Sacks
4
6
Sack Yards
-33
-40
Sack EPA
-6.00
-13.83
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
51
--
Penalty EPA
-6.03
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+68
Home nfelo
1,543
Away nfelo
1,512
Home Field
+59.0
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.6
Net QB Adjustment
-20.7
Home QB Adjustment
-1.2
Away QB Adjustment
+19.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+19.5
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
13
Yards / Game
4
19
Passing Yards / Game
5
28
Rushing Yards / Game
21
7
EPA
EPA / Play
7
10
EPA / Pass
7
14
EPA / Rush
16
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
1
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
7
8
Turnover EPA / Game
15
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
20
4th Down Efficiency
4
2
RZ Efficiency
3
17
Bengals Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
29
Yards / Game
14
23
Passing Yards / Game
3
23
Rushing Yards / Game
24
30
EPA
EPA / Play
12
25
EPA / Pass
9
17
EPA / Rush
22
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
27
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
2
7
Turnover EPA / Game
17
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
32
4th Down Efficiency
5
1
RZ Efficiency
23
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U