LACChargers
8-6
20
TBD
Paycor Stadium
29°F
16 mph
34
CINBengals
3-11
TBD
Paycor Stadium
29°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
3
7
10
20
Bengals
7
6
0
21
34
Spread
+8
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
313
371
Total Plays
63
59
Yards / Play
5.0
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.16
Passing Yards
249
--
Comp/Att
27/40(68%)
16/21(76%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
--
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+1.18
Rushing Yards
64
102
Rush Attempts
22
38
Yards / Rush
2.9
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.38
-0.46
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
46%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.43
-5.25
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-0.89
--
Penalties
1
6
Penalty Yards
--
57
Penalty EPA
--
-4.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market76.2%
Model76.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-169
Home nfelo
1,427
Away nfelo
1,658
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-11.4
Home QB Adjustment
-5.9
Away QB Adjustment
+5.5
Market Regression
+11.7
Final Difference
-202.2
Model Spread
+8.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
24
Yards / Game
1
14
Passing Yards / Game
1
10
Rushing Yards / Game
14
19
EPA
EPA / Play
6
28
EPA / Pass
1
20
EPA / Rush
20
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
25
Interceptions / Game
11
14
Fumbles / Game
28
17
Turnover EPA / Game
14
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
13
4th Down Efficiency
25
3
RZ Efficiency
12
6
Bengals Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
9
Yards / Game
20
1
Passing Yards / Game
24
2
Rushing Yards / Game
27
4
EPA
EPA / Play
19
7
EPA / Pass
17
2
EPA / Rush
31
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
11
Interceptions / Game
24
14
Fumbles / Game
26
28
Turnover EPA / Game
6
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
4
4th Down Efficiency
5
11
RZ Efficiency
23
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Bengals
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U