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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ bengals week 16, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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LAC logo
LACChargers
8-6
20
TBD
Paycor Stadium
29°F
16 mph
34
CINBengals
3-11
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
29°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
3
7
10
20
Bengals
7
6
0
21
34

Spread

CIN logo
+8

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
313
371
Total Plays
63
59
Yards / Play
5.0
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.16
Passing Yards
249
--
Comp/Att
27/40(68%)
16/21(76%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
--
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+1.18
Rushing Yards
64
102
Rush Attempts
22
38
Yards / Rush
2.9
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.38
-0.46
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
46%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.43
-5.25
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-0.89
--
Penalties
1
6
Penalty Yards
--
57
Penalty EPA
--
-4.94

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market76.2%
Model76.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-172
Home nfelo
1,426
Away nfelo
1,660
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-11.4
Home QB Adjustment
-5.9
Away QB Adjustment
+5.5
Market Regression
+11.7
Final Difference
-202.2
Model Spread
+8.0

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
Value
Ptile
10/10
8.5
94
10/17
-6.3
12
10/24
2.8
67
10/31
6.1
88
11/07
5.0
82
11/22
3.7
74
11/28
0.0
49
12/05
-1.9
37
12/12
2.2
63
12/16
7.4
92
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.9
Value
Ptile
10/10
-1.7
39
10/24
9.9
98
10/31
-1.9
37
11/08
-1.0
43
11/14
-0.5
46
11/21
0.0
49
11/25
-9.2
5
12/05
1.6
58
12/12
-7.0
10
12/19
-0.1
49

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Chargers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
2
24
Yards / Game
1
14
Passing Yards / Game
1
10
Rushing Yards / Game
14
19

EPA

EPA / Play
6
28
EPA / Pass
1
20
EPA / Rush
20
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
25
Interceptions / Game
11
14
Fumbles / Game
28
17
Turnover EPA / Game
14
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
13
4th Down Efficiency
25
3
RZ Efficiency
12
6
Bengals Offense vs Chargers Defense
Bengals logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
9
Yards / Game
20
1
Passing Yards / Game
24
2
Rushing Yards / Game
27
4

EPA

EPA / Play
19
7
EPA / Pass
17
2
EPA / Rush
31
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
11
Interceptions / Game
24
14
Fumbles / Game
26
28
Turnover EPA / Game
6
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
4
4th Down Efficiency
5
11
RZ Efficiency
23
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
-8
L
L
O
10/17
-3
L
L
U
10/24
-3
L
L
U
10/31
8
W
W
O
11/07
6
W
W
O
11/22
21
W
W
U
11/28
22
W
W
P
12/05
-15
L
L
U
12/12
31
W
W
U
12/16
27
W
W
U
CIN logo

Bengals

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
-3
L
L
O
10/24
-7
L
L
O
10/31
-8
L
L
U
11/08
-6
L
L
O
11/14
-6
L
W
U
11/21
-18
L
L
O
11/25
-16
L
L
U
12/05
-4
L
W
O
12/12
-16
L
L
U
12/19
2
W
W
U