LACChargers
3-1
29
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
52°F
6 mph
24
DENBroncos
1-3
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
52°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
6
17
0
6
29
Broncos
1
3
0
14
18
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
418
277
Total Plays
77
48
Yards / Play
5.4
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.05
Passing Yards
212
--
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
10/24(42%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.45
Rushing Yards
206
164
Rush Attempts
43
24
Yards / Rush
4.8
6.8
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
13
Passing 1st downs
11
5
Rushing 1st downs
11
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
50%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
9
Red Zone %
20%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.85
-4.97
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-38
--
Sack EPA
-11.10
--
Penalties
--
4
Penalty Yards
--
53
Penalty EPA
--
-7.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
Chargers-3.5
Expected Value
+2.7%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-166
Home nfelo
1,417
Away nfelo
1,611
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.6
Home QB Adjustment
-3.5
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
+18.3
Final Difference
-127.2
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-3.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
26
Yards / Game
6
23
Passing Yards / Game
16
24
Rushing Yards / Game
16
23
EPA
EPA / Play
4
22
EPA / Pass
4
24
EPA / Rush
12
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
11
Interceptions / Game
25
27
Fumbles / Game
12
22
Turnover EPA / Game
7
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
8
4th Down Efficiency
20
6
RZ Efficiency
10
19
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
23
Yards / Game
20
16
Passing Yards / Game
32
10
Rushing Yards / Game
1
20
EPA
EPA / Play
23
29
EPA / Pass
27
28
EPA / Rush
10
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
25
Interceptions / Game
5
15
Fumbles / Game
32
31
Turnover EPA / Game
9
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
32
4th Down Efficiency
28
2
RZ Efficiency
26
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Broncos
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U