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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ broncos week 5, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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LAC logo
LACChargers
3-1
29
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
52°F
6 mph
24
DENBroncos
1-3
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
52°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
6
17
0
6
29
Broncos
1
3
0
14
18

Spread

LAC logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
418
277
Total Plays
77
48
Yards / Play
5.4
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.05
Passing Yards
212
--
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
10/24(42%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.45
Rushing Yards
206
164
Rush Attempts
43
24
Yards / Rush
4.8
6.8
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.35
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
25
13
Passing 1st downs
11
5
Rushing 1st downs
11
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
50%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
9
Red Zone %
20%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.85
-4.97
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-38
--
Sack EPA
-11.10
--
Penalties
--
4
Penalty Yards
--
53
Penalty EPA
--
-7.67

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model67.2%
Spread Pick
LAC logo
Chargers-3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.7%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-161
Home nfelo
1,417
Away nfelo
1,606
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.6
Home QB Adjustment
-3.5
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
+20.7
Final Difference
-124.8
Model Spread
+5.0

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Value
Ptile
11/28
0.0
49
12/05
-1.9
37
12/12
2.2
63
12/16
7.4
92
12/26
1.7
59
01/02
-5.3
16
09/11
2.2
67
09/18
4.9
81
09/25
-4.2
23
10/02
3.8
76
K. Orton headshot

K. Orton

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-3.5
Value
Ptile
10/31
3.4
71
11/14
9.6
97
11/22
-3.1
29
11/28
5.2
84
12/05
-10.1
4
12/12
-10.1
4
09/12
-3.1
31
09/18
0.8
58
09/25
-2.2
35
10/02
1.8
64

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chargers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
5
26
Yards / Game
6
23
Passing Yards / Game
16
24
Rushing Yards / Game
16
23

EPA

EPA / Play
4
22
EPA / Pass
4
24
EPA / Rush
12
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
11
Interceptions / Game
25
27
Fumbles / Game
12
22
Turnover EPA / Game
7
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
8
4th Down Efficiency
20
6
RZ Efficiency
10
19
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Broncos logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
25
23
Yards / Game
20
16
Passing Yards / Game
32
10
Rushing Yards / Game
1
20

EPA

EPA / Play
23
29
EPA / Pass
27
28
EPA / Rush
10
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
25
Interceptions / Game
5
15
Fumbles / Game
32
31
Turnover EPA / Game
9
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
32
4th Down Efficiency
28
2
RZ Efficiency
26
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
22
W
W
P
12/05
-15
L
L
U
12/12
31
W
W
U
12/16
27
W
W
U
12/26
-14
L
L
O
01/02
5
W
P
O
09/11
7
W
L
U
09/18
-14
L
L
O
09/25
3
W
L
U
10/02
10
W
W
U
DEN logo

Broncos

2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
-3
L
L
O
12/05
-4
L
W
U
12/12
-30
L
L
O
12/19
-16
L
L
O
12/26
1
W
W
U
01/02
-5
L
P
O
09/12
-3
L
L
O
09/18
2
W
L
O
09/25
-3
L
W
U
10/02
-26
L
L
O