LACChargers
2-2
23
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
65°F
7 mph
16
DENBroncos
3-2
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
65°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
10
10
3
0
23
Broncos
0
0
0
16
16
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
350
316
Total Plays
75
54
Yards / Play
4.7
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.06
Passing Yards
222
206
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
19/34(56%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.10
Rushing Yards
128
110
Rush Attempts
38
18
Yards / Rush
3.4
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
61%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
11
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
11
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.52
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-15
-10
Sack EPA
-3.86
-3.07
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
20
37
Penalty EPA
-2.29
-6.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model52.7%
Spread Pick
Broncos+3.0
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+20
Home nfelo
1,492
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+13.6
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-35.5
Surface Adj
+15.9
Time Adj
+8.2
Net QB Adjustment
+4.9
Home QB Adjustment
-7.8
Away QB Adjustment
-12.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-18.9
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-12.7
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
3
Yards / Game
20
10
Passing Yards / Game
16
30
Rushing Yards / Game
20
5
EPA
EPA / Play
13
3
EPA / Pass
14
2
EPA / Rush
19
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
29
Interceptions / Game
5
11
Fumbles / Game
3
13
Turnover EPA / Game
29
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
13
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
18
1
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
2
Yards / Game
22
11
Passing Yards / Game
27
18
Rushing Yards / Game
17
14
EPA
EPA / Play
12
4
EPA / Pass
16
4
EPA / Rush
15
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
14
Interceptions / Game
15
7
Fumbles / Game
12
13
Turnover EPA / Game
25
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
4
4th Down Efficiency
9
25
RZ Efficiency
8
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Broncos
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U