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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ broncos week 6, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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LAC logo
LACChargers
2-2
23
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
65°F
7 mph
16
DENBroncos
3-2
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
65°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
10
10
3
0
23
Broncos
0
0
0
16
16

Spread

LAC logo
-3

Total

OVER
37

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
350
316
Total Plays
75
54
Yards / Play
4.7
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.06
Passing Yards
222
206
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
19/34(56%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.10
Rushing Yards
128
110
Rush Attempts
38
18
Yards / Rush
3.4
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
61%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
11
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
11
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.52
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-15
-10
Sack EPA
-3.86
-3.07
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
20
37
Penalty EPA
-2.29
-6.28

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model53.0%
Spread Pick
DEN logo
Broncos+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+18
Home nfelo
1,492
Away nfelo
1,492
Home Field
+13.6
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-35.5
Surface Adj
+15.9
Time Adj
+8.2
Net QB Adjustment
+4.9
Home QB Adjustment
-7.8
Away QB Adjustment
-12.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-20.7
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-12.7
Value
Ptile
11/06
-7.4
10
11/12
7.8
93
11/19
6.2
87
11/26
1.9
63
12/03
-1.0
44
12/10
-10.3
3
09/08
-1.9
35
09/15
-1.0
41
09/22
-2.8
29
09/29
-2.7
30
B. Nix headshot

B. Nix

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.8
Value
Ptile
09/08
-4.2
22
09/15
-4.4
20
09/22
4.8
79
09/29
-3.7
23
10/06
1.5
59

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chargers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
13
3
Yards / Game
20
10
Passing Yards / Game
16
30
Rushing Yards / Game
20
5

EPA

EPA / Play
13
3
EPA / Pass
14
2
EPA / Rush
19
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
29
Interceptions / Game
5
11
Fumbles / Game
3
13
Turnover EPA / Game
29
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
13
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
18
1
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Broncos logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
2
Yards / Game
22
11
Passing Yards / Game
27
18
Rushing Yards / Game
17
14

EPA

EPA / Play
12
4
EPA / Pass
16
4
EPA / Rush
15
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
14
Interceptions / Game
15
7
Fumbles / Game
12
13
Turnover EPA / Game
25
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
4
4th Down Efficiency
9
25
RZ Efficiency
8
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
6
W
W
U
12/10
-17
L
L
U
12/14
-42
L
L
O
12/23
-2
L
W
O
12/31
-7
L
L
U
01/07
-1
L
L
U
09/08
12
W
W
U
09/15
23
W
W
U
09/22
-10
L
L
U
09/29
-7
L
W
U
DEN logo

Broncos

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
17
W
W
U
12/16
-25
L
L
O
12/24
-3
L
L
O
12/31
7
W
W
U
01/07
-13
L
L
O
09/08
-6
L
W
O
09/15
-7
L
L
U
09/22
19
W
W
U
09/29
1
W
W
U
10/06
16
W
W
O