LACChargers
5-2
21
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
68°F
3 mph
35
DENBroncos
5-1
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
68°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
7
7
7
21
Broncos
0
14
14
7
35
Spread
-9
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
306
425
Total Plays
58
65
Yards / Play
5.3
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.30
Passing Yards
245
--
Comp/Att
30/41(73%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.53
Rushing Yards
61
139
Rush Attempts
15
30
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.28
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
27
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
40%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.16
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-2.34
--
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
77
71
Penalty EPA
-6.73
-6.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model76.2%
Spread Pick
Chargers+9.0
Expected Value
+2.2%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+143
Home nfelo
1,697
Away nfelo
1,578
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+0.6
Home QB Adjustment
+19.0
Away QB Adjustment
+18.4
Market Regression
+17.0
Final Difference
202.3
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+18.4
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+19.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
17
Yards / Game
19
3
Passing Yards / Game
8
5
Rushing Yards / Game
30
2
EPA
EPA / Play
12
10
EPA / Pass
7
9
EPA / Rush
27
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
31
Interceptions / Game
26
6
Fumbles / Game
2
28
Turnover EPA / Game
23
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
6
4th Down Efficiency
19
26
RZ Efficiency
15
25
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
12
Yards / Game
5
10
Passing Yards / Game
4
1
Rushing Yards / Game
15
25
EPA
EPA / Play
7
23
EPA / Pass
5
21
EPA / Rush
9
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
16
Interceptions / Game
16
28
Fumbles / Game
5
6
Turnover EPA / Game
27
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
24
4th Down Efficiency
17
3
RZ Efficiency
4
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U