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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ broncos week 8, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
3-4
19
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
76°F
6 mph
27
DENBroncos
5-2
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
76°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
0
6
0
13
Broncos
3
1
7
10
21

Spread

DEN logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
369
324
Total Plays
78
64
Yards / Play
4.7
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.32
-0.27
Passing Yards
246
267
Comp/Att
20/48(42%)
20/38(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.46
-0.32
Rushing Yards
123
57
Rush Attempts
26
25
Yards / Rush
4.7
2.3
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
41%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-20.07
-14.31
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-21
-9
Sack EPA
-5.00
-4.38
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
52
45
Penalty EPA
-4.89
-8.41

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+108
Home nfelo
1,584
Away nfelo
1,512
Home Field
+42.1
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-6.3
Home QB Adjustment
-2.2
Away QB Adjustment
+4.1
Market Regression
-45.9
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.1
Value
Ptile
12/20
2.9
72
12/24
2.5
68
01/03
-1.3
41
09/11
3.9
77
09/18
3.6
75
09/25
1.7
62
10/02
-0.3
46
10/09
4.3
81
10/13
-0.4
45
10/23
-1.7
36
T. Siemian headshot

T. Siemian

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
Value
Ptile
09/08
-2.8
27
09/18
-0.6
44
09/25
7.5
91
10/02
-6.4
10
10/13
-1.0
41
10/24
-0.5
45

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chargers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
8
3
Yards / Game
13
4
Passing Yards / Game
10
5
Rushing Yards / Game
26
28

EPA

EPA / Play
17
1
EPA / Pass
15
1
EPA / Rush
27
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
9
Interceptions / Game
31
14
Fumbles / Game
31
2
Turnover EPA / Game
2
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
5
4th Down Efficiency
14
8
RZ Efficiency
23
9
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Broncos logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
29
Yards / Game
27
15
Passing Yards / Game
19
23
Rushing Yards / Game
27
12

EPA

EPA / Play
25
13
EPA / Pass
23
13
EPA / Rush
30
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
14
Interceptions / Game
12
1
Fumbles / Game
31
12
Turnover EPA / Game
18
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
17
4th Down Efficiency
11
25
RZ Efficiency
27
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

4-6
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
16
W
W
U
12/24
-3
L
W
U
01/03
-7
L
W
O
09/11
-6
L
W
O
09/18
24
W
W
O
09/25
-4
L
L
U
10/02
-1
L
L
O
10/09
-3
L
W
O
10/13
8
W
W
U
10/23
3
W
W
O
DEN logo

Broncos

8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/17
7
W
P
U
01/24
2
W
W
U
02/07
14
W
W
U
09/08
1
W
W
O
09/18
14
W
W
O
09/25
12
W
W
O
10/02
20
W
W
U
10/09
-7
L
L
U
10/13
-8
L
L
U
10/24
18
W
W
U