LACChargers
3-4
19
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
76°F
6 mph
27
DENBroncos
5-2
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
76°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
0
6
0
13
Broncos
3
1
7
10
21
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
369
324
Total Plays
78
64
Yards / Play
4.7
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.32
-0.27
Passing Yards
246
267
Comp/Att
20/48(42%)
20/38(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.46
-0.32
Rushing Yards
123
57
Rush Attempts
26
25
Yards / Rush
4.7
2.3
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
41%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-20.07
-14.31
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-21
-9
Sack EPA
-5.00
-4.38
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
52
45
Penalty EPA
-4.89
-8.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+112
Home nfelo
1,589
Away nfelo
1,513
Home Field
+41.6
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-6.3
Home QB Adjustment
-2.2
Away QB Adjustment
+4.1
Market Regression
-52.7
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.1
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
3
Yards / Game
13
4
Passing Yards / Game
10
5
Rushing Yards / Game
26
28
EPA
EPA / Play
17
1
EPA / Pass
15
1
EPA / Rush
27
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
9
Interceptions / Game
31
14
Fumbles / Game
31
2
Turnover EPA / Game
2
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
5
4th Down Efficiency
14
8
RZ Efficiency
23
9
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
29
Yards / Game
27
15
Passing Yards / Game
19
23
Rushing Yards / Game
27
12
EPA
EPA / Play
25
13
EPA / Pass
23
13
EPA / Rush
30
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
14
Interceptions / Game
12
1
Fumbles / Game
31
12
Turnover EPA / Game
18
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
17
4th Down Efficiency
11
25
RZ Efficiency
27
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
4-6
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Broncos
8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
3-7
O/U