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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ broncos week 11, 2003

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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LAC logo
LACChargers
2-7
8
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
52°F
6 mph
37
DENBroncos
5-4
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
52°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
0
0
8
8
Broncos
10
11
7
3
31

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
98
448
Total Plays
41
85
Yards / Play
2.4
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.65
+0.03
Passing Yards
58
247
Comp/Att
9/26(35%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
2.2
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.57
+0.15
Rushing Yards
40
201
Rush Attempts
13
49
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.64
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
5
26
Passing 1st downs
2
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
20%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
2
11
3rd Down Attempts
10
20
Red Zone %
50%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-16.64
-11.66
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-6
Sack EPA
-5.01
-5.02
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
83
--
Penalty EPA
-3.76
--

Preview data is limited for games before 2009

Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A

Win Probability

MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chargers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
16
12
Yards / Game
16
5
Passing Yards / Game
25
3
Rushing Yards / Game
6
6

EPA

EPA / Play
12
14
EPA / Pass
20
15
EPA / Rush
4
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
27
Interceptions / Game
21
32
Fumbles / Game
23
13
Turnover EPA / Game
10
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
4
4th Down Efficiency
14
18
RZ Efficiency
22
6
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Broncos logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
31
Yards / Game
7
27
Passing Yards / Game
31
24
Rushing Yards / Game
1
26

EPA

EPA / Play
10
32
EPA / Pass
15
28
EPA / Rush
3
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
21
Interceptions / Game
20
25
Fumbles / Game
2
31
Turnover EPA / Game
22
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
31
4th Down Efficiency
28
22
RZ Efficiency
7
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
-3
L
L
P
09/07
-13
L
L
P
09/14
-24
L
L
P
09/21
-14
L
L
P
09/28
-3
L
W
P
10/05
-6
L
L
P
10/19
6
W
W
P
10/27
-16
L
L
P
11/02
-13
L
L
P
11/09
14
W
W
P
DEN logo

Broncos

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
30
W
W
P
09/07
20
W
W
P
09/14
24
W
W
P
09/22
21
W
W
P
09/28
4
W
L
P
10/05
-1
L
W
P
10/12
3
W
L
P
10/19
-8
L
L
P
10/26
-20
L
L
P
11/03
-4
L
L
P