LACChargers
6-3
32
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
51°F
3 mph
3
DENBroncos
6-3
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
51°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
6
7
12
32
Broncos
0
0
3
0
3
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
348
271
Total Plays
65
53
Yards / Play
5.4
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.29
-0.33
Passing Yards
--
156
Comp/Att
17/22(77%)
17/33(52%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.44
-0.51
Rushing Yards
203
115
Rush Attempts
43
17
Yards / Rush
4.7
6.8
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
14
Passing 1st downs
9
7
Rushing 1st downs
10
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-12.34
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-25
Sack EPA
--
-8.68
Penalties
1
9
Penalty Yards
--
65
Penalty EPA
--
-6.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model67.7%
Spread Pick
Broncos+6.5
Expected Value
+2.1%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-96
Home nfelo
1,499
Away nfelo
1,558
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-70.9
Home QB Adjustment
-58.5
Away QB Adjustment
+12.5
Market Regression
-1.9
Final Difference
-128.8
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
C. Simms
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-58.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
11
Yards / Game
10
7
Passing Yards / Game
4
4
Rushing Yards / Game
31
26
EPA
EPA / Play
1
12
EPA / Pass
1
6
EPA / Rush
28
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
14
Interceptions / Game
6
13
Fumbles / Game
3
7
Turnover EPA / Game
32
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
12
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
10
14
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
10
Yards / Game
15
12
Passing Yards / Game
9
26
Rushing Yards / Game
18
21
EPA
EPA / Play
18
23
EPA / Pass
15
19
EPA / Rush
18
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
25
Interceptions / Game
7
20
Fumbles / Game
13
14
Turnover EPA / Game
20
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
22
4th Down Efficiency
25
20
RZ Efficiency
22
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-3-2
O/U
Broncos
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-7-1
O/U