LACChargers
6-4
13
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
62°F
028
DENBroncos
5-5
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
62°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
7
0
6
13
Broncos
7
7
0
8
22
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
357
302
Total Plays
65
59
Yards / Play
5.5
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.09
Passing Yards
285
155
Comp/Att
28/45(62%)
15/25(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.10
Rushing Yards
72
147
Rush Attempts
17
33
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.09
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
15
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
73%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-14.18
-4.29
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
--
Sack EPA
-3.88
+1.09
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
75
35
Penalty EPA
-11.78
-4.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-22
Home nfelo
1,474
Away nfelo
1,524
Home Field
+53.7
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
-17.8
Home Bye Adj
+11.3
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-26.7
Home QB Adjustment
-3.3
Away QB Adjustment
+23.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+23.4
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-3.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
2
Yards / Game
4
9
Passing Yards / Game
5
12
Rushing Yards / Game
21
14
EPA
EPA / Play
7
19
EPA / Pass
7
16
EPA / Rush
16
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
12
Interceptions / Game
21
17
Fumbles / Game
7
18
Turnover EPA / Game
15
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
28
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
3
2
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
29
Yards / Game
19
23
Passing Yards / Game
11
23
Rushing Yards / Game
13
30
EPA
EPA / Play
15
25
EPA / Pass
13
17
EPA / Rush
23
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
27
Interceptions / Game
5
22
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
25
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
32
4th Down Efficiency
14
1
RZ Efficiency
21
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U