LACChargers
6-7
27
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
37°F
2 mph
20
DENBroncos
11-2
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
37°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
3
14
7
3
27
Broncos
10
0
0
10
20
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
56.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
337
295
Total Plays
66
53
Yards / Play
5.1
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.31
+0.19
Passing Yards
160
277
Comp/Att
12/20(60%)
27/41(66%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.70
+0.21
Rushing Yards
177
18
Rush Attempts
44
11
Yards / Rush
4.0
1.6
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
10
16
Rushing 1st downs
11
1
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
50%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.58
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-6
-12
Sack EPA
-2.69
-1.88
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-3.79
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+226
Home nfelo
1,674
Away nfelo
1,469
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-2.6
Home QB Adjustment
+25.6
Away QB Adjustment
+28.2
Market Regression
-12.0
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+28.2
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+25.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
22
Yards / Game
8
18
Passing Yards / Game
2
23
Rushing Yards / Game
13
5
EPA
EPA / Play
2
23
EPA / Pass
2
23
EPA / Rush
10
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
32
Interceptions / Game
5
18
Fumbles / Game
7
8
Turnover EPA / Game
27
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
19
4th Down Efficiency
1
4
RZ Efficiency
21
25
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
9
Yards / Game
1
23
Passing Yards / Game
24
20
Rushing Yards / Game
16
14
EPA
EPA / Play
1
30
EPA / Pass
1
22
EPA / Rush
19
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
28
Interceptions / Game
7
24
Fumbles / Game
25
19
Turnover EPA / Game
15
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
21
4th Down Efficiency
4
15
RZ Efficiency
2
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U