LACChargers
8-7
33
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
42°F
4 mph
28
DENBroncos
4-11
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
42°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
16
10
7
33
Broncos
7
0
7
14
28
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
447
337
Total Plays
73
68
Yards / Play
6.1
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.01
Passing Yards
283
191
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
16/36(44%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.11
Rushing Yards
164
146
Rush Attempts
31
29
Yards / Rush
5.3
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
39%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
14
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.08
-6.53
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-30
-14
Sack EPA
-6.56
-3.21
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
--
45
Penalty EPA
--
-5.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model77.0%
Spread Pick
Chargers-5.5
Expected Value
+22.9%
Cover Probability
64.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-274
Home nfelo
1,352
Away nfelo
1,646
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.9
Home QB Adjustment
-11.1
Away QB Adjustment
+3.7
Market Regression
-34.6
Final Difference
-210.3
Model Spread
+8.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
T. Tebow
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-11.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
32
Yards / Game
1
32
Passing Yards / Game
1
4
Rushing Yards / Game
14
31
EPA
EPA / Play
6
31
EPA / Pass
1
30
EPA / Rush
20
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
10
Interceptions / Game
11
31
Fumbles / Game
28
22
Turnover EPA / Game
14
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
16
4th Down Efficiency
25
27
RZ Efficiency
12
26
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
9
Yards / Game
11
1
Passing Yards / Game
5
2
Rushing Yards / Game
26
4
EPA
EPA / Play
17
7
EPA / Pass
12
2
EPA / Rush
30
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
11
Interceptions / Game
7
14
Fumbles / Game
26
28
Turnover EPA / Game
16
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
4
4th Down Efficiency
30
11
RZ Efficiency
13
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Broncos
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U