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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ broncos week 18, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

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  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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    Advanced stats for receivers
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LAC logo
LACChargers
11-5
+12.5
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
70°F
0
-12.5
DENBroncos
13-3
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
70°F
0

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.0

Win Probability

Market84.1%
Model83.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+87
Home nfelo
1,555
Away nfelo
1,549
Home Field
+40.0
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+41.3
Home QB Adjustment
+13.1
Away QB Adjustment
-28.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
279.2
Model Spread
-12.0

Quarterbacks

T. Lance headshot

T. Lance

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-28.2
Value
Ptile
10/10
-2.6
34
01/02
1.7
66
09/11
-5.4
15
09/18
-5.5
15
01/05
-1.3
39
B. Nix headshot

B. Nix

Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
Value
Ptile
10/19
7.1
92
10/26
3.6
76
11/02
0.1
52
11/06
-7.7
6
11/16
0.3
54
11/30
2.4
67
12/07
2.3
67
12/14
8.7
96
12/21
1.1
58
12/25
2.6
69

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chargers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
17
4
Yards / Game
12
3
Passing Yards / Game
10
22
Rushing Yards / Game
12
2

EPA

EPA / Play
21
11
EPA / Pass
20
10
EPA / Rush
18
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
32
Interceptions / Game
23
19
Fumbles / Game
6
24
Turnover EPA / Game
11
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
2
4th Down Efficiency
18
10
RZ Efficiency
27
2
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Broncos logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
14
7
Yards / Game
9
4
Passing Yards / Game
23
7
Rushing Yards / Game
19
9

EPA

EPA / Play
15
8
EPA / Pass
9
7
EPA / Rush
13
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
4
Interceptions / Game
16
3
Fumbles / Game
3
29
Turnover EPA / Game
27
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
12
RZ Efficiency
10
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
-14
L
L
O
10/23
27
W
W
O
11/02
7
W
L
O
11/09
15
W
W
U
11/16
-29
L
L
U
11/30
17
W
W
O
12/08
3
W
W
U
12/14
3
W
W
U
12/21
17
W
W
O
12/27
-4
L
L
U
DEN logo

Broncos

9-1
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
1
W
L
O
10/26
20
W
W
O
11/02
3
W
W
U
11/06
3
W
L
U
11/16
3
W
W
U
11/30
1
W
L
O
12/07
7
W
L
O
12/14
8
W
W
O
12/21
-14
L
L
O
12/25
7
W
L
U