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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ broncos week 18, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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LAC logo
LACChargers
11-5
3
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
66°F
8 mph
19
DENBroncos
13-3
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
66°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
3
0
0
3
Broncos
4
0
3
6
13

Spread

DEN logo
-14.5

Total

UNDER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
217
240
Total Plays
69
58
Yards / Play
3.1
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.42
-0.16
Passing Yards
104
124
Comp/Att
20/44(45%)
14/23(61%)
Yards / Pass
2.4
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.72
-0.25
Rushing Yards
113
116
Rush Attempts
21
31
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
13
13
Passing 1st downs
7
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
35%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
20
15
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.67
--
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-32
-17
Sack EPA
-10.20
-5.70
Penalties
5
1
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-14.5
Model
-14.5

Win Probability

Market87.9%
Model87.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+86
Home nfelo
1,553
Away nfelo
1,549
Home Field
+39.9
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
-20.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+41.3
Home QB Adjustment
+13.1
Away QB Adjustment
-28.2
Market Regression
+65.3
Final Difference
344.5
Model Spread
-14.5

Quarterbacks

T. Lance headshot

T. Lance

Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-28.2
Value
Ptile
10/10
-2.6
34
01/02
1.7
66
09/11
-5.4
15
09/18
-5.5
15
01/05
-1.2
39
B. Nix headshot

B. Nix

Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
Value
Ptile
10/19
7.2
93
10/26
3.6
76
11/02
0.1
52
11/06
-7.7
6
11/16
0.4
54
11/30
2.5
68
12/07
2.3
67
12/14
8.7
96
12/21
1.1
59
12/25
2.6
69

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chargers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
24
4
Yards / Game
17
4
Passing Yards / Game
13
20
Rushing Yards / Game
14
5

EPA

EPA / Play
26
7
EPA / Pass
26
5
EPA / Rush
13
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
31
Interceptions / Game
23
19
Fumbles / Game
17
15
Turnover EPA / Game
11
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
6
4th Down Efficiency
17
16
RZ Efficiency
30
3
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Broncos logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
15
8
Yards / Game
12
6
Passing Yards / Game
28
7
Rushing Yards / Game
21
10

EPA

EPA / Play
17
8
EPA / Pass
11
10
EPA / Rush
17
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
2
Interceptions / Game
15
3
Fumbles / Game
4
30
Turnover EPA / Game
30
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
5
4th Down Efficiency
21
15
RZ Efficiency
21
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
-14
L
L
O
10/23
27
W
W
O
11/02
7
W
L
O
11/09
15
W
W
U
11/16
-29
L
L
U
11/30
17
W
W
O
12/08
3
W
W
U
12/14
3
W
W
U
12/21
17
W
W
O
12/27
-4
L
L
U
DEN logo

Broncos

9-1
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
1
W
L
O
10/26
20
W
W
O
11/02
3
W
W
U
11/06
3
W
L
U
11/16
3
W
W
U
11/30
1
W
L
O
12/07
7
W
L
O
12/14
8
W
W
O
12/21
-14
L
L
O
12/25
7
W
L
U