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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ browns week 8, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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LAC logo
LACChargers
3-3
6
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
44°F
19 mph
7
CLEBrowns
1-6
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
44°F
19 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
3
3
0
6
Browns
7
0
0
0
7

Spread

CLE logo
+3

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
265
250
Total Plays
69
62
Yards / Play
3.8
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.15
Passing Yards
148
117
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
11/27(41%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
4.3
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.22
Rushing Yards
117
133
Rush Attempts
34
33
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
17
15
Passing 1st downs
9
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
38%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
0%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
--
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.21
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-12
Sack EPA
-1.25
-4.06
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
15
35
Penalty EPA
-2.78
-2.29

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-56
Home nfelo
1,403
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+47.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+25.6
Home QB Adjustment
+10.0
Away QB Adjustment
-15.7
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-15.7
Value
Ptile
12/11
5.1
82
12/18
7.1
91
12/24
-1.5
40
01/01
6.4
88
09/10
2.7
67
09/16
3.1
71
09/23
-6.4
11
09/30
-0.4
47
10/07
-0.7
44
10/15
-7.9
6
B. Weeden headshot

B. Weeden

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+10.0
Value
Ptile
09/09
-13.8
0
09/16
6.3
88
09/23
-5.3
16
09/27
-2.2
34
10/07
1.9
61
10/14
-0.6
46
10/21
5.3
83

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Browns Defense
Chargers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
19
19
Yards / Game
31
22
Passing Yards / Game
13
20
Rushing Yards / Game
28
18

EPA

EPA / Play
19
12
EPA / Pass
20
18
EPA / Rush
28
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
15
Interceptions / Game
14
11
Fumbles / Game
23
5
Turnover EPA / Game
18
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
14
4th Down Efficiency
14
27
RZ Efficiency
26
23
Browns Offense vs Chargers Defense
Browns logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
24
15
Yards / Game
25
9
Passing Yards / Game
24
12
Rushing Yards / Game
24
5

EPA

EPA / Play
26
9
EPA / Pass
27
13
EPA / Rush
13
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
3
Interceptions / Game
27
18
Fumbles / Game
3
7
Turnover EPA / Game
17
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
29
4th Down Efficiency
21
8
RZ Efficiency
30
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
27
W
W
U
12/18
20
W
W
O
12/24
-28
L
L
U
01/01
12
W
W
O
09/10
8
W
W
U
09/16
28
W
W
O
09/23
-24
L
L
U
09/30
17
W
W
O
10/07
-7
L
L
O
10/15
-11
L
L
O
CLE logo

Browns

1-9
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
-3
L
W
P
12/24
-6
L
W
U
01/01
-4
L
W
U
09/09
-1
L
W
U
09/16
-7
L
P
O
09/23
-10
L
L
U
09/27
-7
L
W
U
10/07
-14
L
L
O
10/14
10
W
W
O
10/21
-4
L
L
U