LACChargers
3-3
6
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
44°F
19 mph
7
CLEBrowns
1-6
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
44°F
19 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
3
3
0
6
Browns
7
0
0
0
7
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
265
250
Total Plays
69
62
Yards / Play
3.8
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.15
Passing Yards
148
117
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
11/27(41%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
4.3
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.22
Rushing Yards
117
133
Rush Attempts
34
33
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
15
Passing 1st downs
9
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
38%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
0%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.21
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-12
Sack EPA
-1.25
-4.06
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
15
35
Penalty EPA
-2.78
-2.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-61
Home nfelo
1,400
Away nfelo
1,534
Home Field
+47.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+25.6
Home QB Adjustment
+10.0
Away QB Adjustment
-15.7
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-15.7
B. Weeden
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+10.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
19
Yards / Game
31
22
Passing Yards / Game
13
20
Rushing Yards / Game
28
18
EPA
EPA / Play
19
12
EPA / Pass
20
18
EPA / Rush
28
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
15
Interceptions / Game
14
11
Fumbles / Game
23
5
Turnover EPA / Game
18
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
14
4th Down Efficiency
14
27
RZ Efficiency
26
23
Browns Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
15
Yards / Game
25
9
Passing Yards / Game
24
12
Rushing Yards / Game
24
5
EPA
EPA / Play
26
9
EPA / Pass
27
13
EPA / Rush
13
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
3
Interceptions / Game
27
18
Fumbles / Game
3
7
Turnover EPA / Game
17
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
29
4th Down Efficiency
21
8
RZ Efficiency
30
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Browns
1-9
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U